Don't worry. I'm not about to start giving you college basketball picks that ultimately will end up .500 and losing your vig. What I am going to share is my favorite betting scenario over the last two years as inspired by last night's Kentucky @ South Carolina game.
Now this doesn't work with teams that start the year at #1 since they generally play cupcakes early in their schedules but teams playing their first game as the #1 ranked team in the country will either lose or not cover most of the time. Especially on the road. Take a look at last year:
1/5/09 - Pitt - not a great example because played home games against patsies St. John's and South Florida and won but first game on the road they lose to Louisville.
1/19/09 - Wake Forest - got #1 ranking and lost it two days later at home to Virginia Tech
1/26/09 - Duke - first game as #1 they lose at home to North Carolina. Not a bad loss but still.
2/2/09 - UConn - one of the times it didn't work out. They held #1 for three weeks.
2/23/09 - Pitt - got the #1 ranking back and the next day they lose on the road at Providence.
3/2/09 - UConn - got the #1 ranking back and they lose at Pittsburgh.
Even this year we've had Texas not cover in their first game after getting the #1 ranking from Kansas (against Iowa St) and of course last night Kentucky loses outright to South Carolina.
I don't know who'll be #1 when the new polls come out on February 1st but if it's one of these teams, keep these in mind:
Kansas - first game would be on the road against Colorado.
Villanova - first game would be home against Seton Hall (1st road game would be @ Georgetown)
Syracuse - first game would be home against Providence (1st road game would be @ Cincinnati)
image from http://bleacherreport.com
I hate commenting on my own post but if you noticed, this came through again. Kansas -14.5 on the road at Colorado did not cover. In fact, they almost lost. Needed overtime just to beat CU.
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