I'm going to wait until tomorrow to make my other two picks but I do want one of my 3 picks for the week to be tonight's game. I thought the line would be a little higher which makes this pick a little too easy which does worry me.
Minnesota @ New Orleans (-5)
It just seems too easy. You think Favre is going to be ready because he always is but this time he's coming off surgery and he doesn't have his favorite receivers. Add in that the New Orleans Saints are coming back as conquering heroes and I think this is a 31-21 type game.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Hard Knocks Postmortem
Ideally I would have liked to do a weekly recap of Hard Knocks but there was no guarantee that I would actually get to watch it as appointment television every Wednesday night. But now that's it over I'd like to give a postmortem.
I normally hate stuff like this when it comes to my team. If this was the first season of Hard Knocks I would have been watching looking through the spaces in my fingers as I covered my eyes expecting the worst. But I've watched a few seasons of Hard Knocks and NFL Films does such a good job that I was actually looking forward to Training Camp with the New York Jets.
Although Darelle Revis was the most important story of Jets camp, it was far and away my least favorite story on Hard Knocks. Living in New York, we were inundated with Revis hold out stories. I like Hard Knocks because you gets to see undrafted rookies trying to make the team or two guys fighting over a starting job.
The most jarring thing to see on the show was someone getting cut and it has a lot to do with the way Mike Tannenbaum does it. He greets you went you walk in and matter-of-factly tells you that they are going to let you go essentially as your ass is hitting the chair. Then another couple of sentences about how they appreciate they effort they gave and that's it. Dream crushed. Fascinating television.
I read and heard a lot that Rex Ryan was playing over the top for the cameras. I disagree. There were no HBO cameras around when he was telling everyone the Jets should be the favorites in the AFC Championship game or apologizing that the Jets season was over at 7-7. Like him or hate him, he doesn't have a filter between his brain and his mouth and I believe what you see is what you get.
I'm not above being propagandized by television. Last year I finished last season's Hard Knocks with the Cincinnati Bengals thinking 2009 was going to be Chris Henry's breakout year. I drafted him on my fantasy team and everything and now we all know what happened to him. Here is my list of ways I was propagandized by this season of Hard Knocks:
-LaDanian Tomlinson might not be done yet. He's not going to play at a Hall of Fame caliber level but I think he's going to help more than he's going to hurt.
-If I was rich and had 250 dollars laying around to get a random authentic Jets jersey, John Connor would be in my top 3 choices.
-For a guy that played 8 games and had 2 solo tackles last year I was devastated to learn that Ropati Pitoitua was going to miss the season. That guy looks huge and pretty quick for his 6-8 315 frame. I was actually comfortable with him being part of the defensive line rotation.
-I don't care if he was the 1st round draft pick this year. Admit your mistake and cut Joe McKnight. He never really lived up to the hype of being the best high school football player in the country and he looks light years away from being an NFL player. Chauncey Washington deserved to be on this team.
The Kellen Clemens thing was insane to be in the room for. First you see Kellen Clemens saying that he just wants an opportunity to have a legit shot at a competition for a starting job in the NFL the within the half hour he's faced with a decision to be released or take a pay cut to be 3RD STRING. He takes the pay cut to be the emergency quarterback. That strikes me as a guy that would rather just be employed in the NFL than compete for a job anymore. I used to feel bad for him because he really hasn't had a fair shake. The one year he got to start a few games, it was behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Maybe he was just blindsided by Tannenbaum's honesty and bluntness.
Mike Westhoff was probably the real star of Hard Knocks for me. I always knew he was a respected special teams coach he pulls no punches when talking about players good or bad and I found him to be a pleasure to watch.
I think the Jets will be competitive this year. I think they will have a very similar regular season as last year. The reason I don't think they'll be that much better is because Mark Sanchez still isn't that good yet. You hear people say he's grown enormously as far as being a leader and having it being his huddle. That's great an all but that doesn't really help his decision making once the ball is snapped. Hard Knocks made him a likable guy (which he was already) but it also highlighted his immaturity.
I would have liked to see more of Shonn Greene. I still don't know much about him as a person. I also would have liked to see the whole Tony Richardson being cut for the day situation. I still don't get that. I think the Jets pissed off some veterans by getting rid of Thomas Jones and Alan Faneca and resigning Tony Richardson so quick was less of a roster shuffle they had to do when Revis was signed as it was a backpedal based on the Jets players reaction.
All and all I loved every second of Hard Knocks. I'll watch it again next year but it'll never be the same as having your team as the star.
I normally hate stuff like this when it comes to my team. If this was the first season of Hard Knocks I would have been watching looking through the spaces in my fingers as I covered my eyes expecting the worst. But I've watched a few seasons of Hard Knocks and NFL Films does such a good job that I was actually looking forward to Training Camp with the New York Jets.
Although Darelle Revis was the most important story of Jets camp, it was far and away my least favorite story on Hard Knocks. Living in New York, we were inundated with Revis hold out stories. I like Hard Knocks because you gets to see undrafted rookies trying to make the team or two guys fighting over a starting job.
The most jarring thing to see on the show was someone getting cut and it has a lot to do with the way Mike Tannenbaum does it. He greets you went you walk in and matter-of-factly tells you that they are going to let you go essentially as your ass is hitting the chair. Then another couple of sentences about how they appreciate they effort they gave and that's it. Dream crushed. Fascinating television.
I read and heard a lot that Rex Ryan was playing over the top for the cameras. I disagree. There were no HBO cameras around when he was telling everyone the Jets should be the favorites in the AFC Championship game or apologizing that the Jets season was over at 7-7. Like him or hate him, he doesn't have a filter between his brain and his mouth and I believe what you see is what you get.
I'm not above being propagandized by television. Last year I finished last season's Hard Knocks with the Cincinnati Bengals thinking 2009 was going to be Chris Henry's breakout year. I drafted him on my fantasy team and everything and now we all know what happened to him. Here is my list of ways I was propagandized by this season of Hard Knocks:
-LaDanian Tomlinson might not be done yet. He's not going to play at a Hall of Fame caliber level but I think he's going to help more than he's going to hurt.
-If I was rich and had 250 dollars laying around to get a random authentic Jets jersey, John Connor would be in my top 3 choices.
-For a guy that played 8 games and had 2 solo tackles last year I was devastated to learn that Ropati Pitoitua was going to miss the season. That guy looks huge and pretty quick for his 6-8 315 frame. I was actually comfortable with him being part of the defensive line rotation.
-I don't care if he was the 1st round draft pick this year. Admit your mistake and cut Joe McKnight. He never really lived up to the hype of being the best high school football player in the country and he looks light years away from being an NFL player. Chauncey Washington deserved to be on this team.
The Kellen Clemens thing was insane to be in the room for. First you see Kellen Clemens saying that he just wants an opportunity to have a legit shot at a competition for a starting job in the NFL the within the half hour he's faced with a decision to be released or take a pay cut to be 3RD STRING. He takes the pay cut to be the emergency quarterback. That strikes me as a guy that would rather just be employed in the NFL than compete for a job anymore. I used to feel bad for him because he really hasn't had a fair shake. The one year he got to start a few games, it was behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Maybe he was just blindsided by Tannenbaum's honesty and bluntness.
Mike Westhoff was probably the real star of Hard Knocks for me. I always knew he was a respected special teams coach he pulls no punches when talking about players good or bad and I found him to be a pleasure to watch.
I think the Jets will be competitive this year. I think they will have a very similar regular season as last year. The reason I don't think they'll be that much better is because Mark Sanchez still isn't that good yet. You hear people say he's grown enormously as far as being a leader and having it being his huddle. That's great an all but that doesn't really help his decision making once the ball is snapped. Hard Knocks made him a likable guy (which he was already) but it also highlighted his immaturity.
I would have liked to see more of Shonn Greene. I still don't know much about him as a person. I also would have liked to see the whole Tony Richardson being cut for the day situation. I still don't get that. I think the Jets pissed off some veterans by getting rid of Thomas Jones and Alan Faneca and resigning Tony Richardson so quick was less of a roster shuffle they had to do when Revis was signed as it was a backpedal based on the Jets players reaction.
All and all I loved every second of Hard Knocks. I'll watch it again next year but it'll never be the same as having your team as the star.
Bobs Over/Under NFL Picks
I'm just getting around to looking at these lines now, and I really like 10 of them. I'll select my top 6 for the season to stay consistent with Keith & Pete.
Raiders - Under 6.5
I almost want to reload my account just so I can bet on this. I know they are a slightly improved team with a defense that keeps them in games, but its not like the line is at 4.5. For them to go over, they would have to win 7 games which they have not done since 2002. In fact, they haven't won 6 games since 2002. Tis a slam dunk.
49'ers - Under 9
I like the 49'ers this year, I really do. But I think worst case scenario with this bet is a push, because they are not winning 10 games. They play in a cupcake division, but even if they win all of their division games (which they wont), they still could finish at 9-7.
Giants - Over 8.5
I don't necessarily love the Giants this year, but I think the Eagles are down and the Skins haven't improved enough. They may go into their final game with 8 wins and need to beat Washington to get the over, but even then I wouldn't be worried.
Seahawks - Under 7
Im picking my second team to go under in this division and that may prove to be foolish, but the Seahawks have gone from mediocre to just plain bad. They are trotting out one of the worst wide receiver corps and running back duos in football to join their aging quarterback.
Colts - Over 11
They hit the rough part of their schedule in week 10 (New England, San Diego, Dallas) but by that point they may very well be 8-0. They have the schedule and talent to produce another 13 or 14 win season and keep in mind they would have hit this over every year since 2002.
Chargers - Under 10.5
I'm not sure I love this, because their schedule is actually pretty easy but their are just too many question marks with this chargers team. I know everyone loves Ryan Matthews, but how well he will perform at this level? And without Vincent Jackson taking some of the defensive focus, this team may sputter offensively.
Raiders - Under 6.5
I almost want to reload my account just so I can bet on this. I know they are a slightly improved team with a defense that keeps them in games, but its not like the line is at 4.5. For them to go over, they would have to win 7 games which they have not done since 2002. In fact, they haven't won 6 games since 2002. Tis a slam dunk.
49'ers - Under 9
I like the 49'ers this year, I really do. But I think worst case scenario with this bet is a push, because they are not winning 10 games. They play in a cupcake division, but even if they win all of their division games (which they wont), they still could finish at 9-7.
Giants - Over 8.5
I don't necessarily love the Giants this year, but I think the Eagles are down and the Skins haven't improved enough. They may go into their final game with 8 wins and need to beat Washington to get the over, but even then I wouldn't be worried.
Seahawks - Under 7
Im picking my second team to go under in this division and that may prove to be foolish, but the Seahawks have gone from mediocre to just plain bad. They are trotting out one of the worst wide receiver corps and running back duos in football to join their aging quarterback.
Colts - Over 11
They hit the rough part of their schedule in week 10 (New England, San Diego, Dallas) but by that point they may very well be 8-0. They have the schedule and talent to produce another 13 or 14 win season and keep in mind they would have hit this over every year since 2002.
Chargers - Under 10.5
I'm not sure I love this, because their schedule is actually pretty easy but their are just too many question marks with this chargers team. I know everyone loves Ryan Matthews, but how well he will perform at this level? And without Vincent Jackson taking some of the defensive focus, this team may sputter offensively.
2010 NFL Predictions
Because this went so well last year
AFC
East : Patriots
North : Ravens
South : Colts
West : Chargers
Wildcards: Jets, Texans
AFC Champions : Colts
NFC
East : Eagles
North : Vikings
South : Saints
West : 49ers
Wildcards : Giants, Packers
NFC Champions : Packers
Super Bowl Champions : Colts
NFL MVP : Matt Schaub
NFL Defensive Player of the Year : Patrick Willis
Offensive Rookie Of The Year : Mike Williams
Defensive Rookie Of The Year : Daryl Washington
Coach Of The Year : Gary Kubiak
Notes:
-Until someone unseats the Pats (with Tom Brady at QB) I can't pick otherwise.
-Texans or Steelers for the other wildcard was the hardest decision I had.
-I'm leaving the Cowboys out. The home Super Bowl won't be a story by Week 9
-I would have liked to pick CJ Spiller as Offensive Rookie of the Year but they have three above average RBs in Buffalo. It's too much of a carries share for me to go there.
-I know I have the Packers making the Super Bowl but not winning the division. That is on purpose.
AFC
East : Patriots
North : Ravens
South : Colts
West : Chargers
Wildcards: Jets, Texans
AFC Champions : Colts
NFC
East : Eagles
North : Vikings
South : Saints
West : 49ers
Wildcards : Giants, Packers
NFC Champions : Packers
Super Bowl Champions : Colts
NFL MVP : Matt Schaub
NFL Defensive Player of the Year : Patrick Willis
Offensive Rookie Of The Year : Mike Williams
Defensive Rookie Of The Year : Daryl Washington
Coach Of The Year : Gary Kubiak
Notes:
-Until someone unseats the Pats (with Tom Brady at QB) I can't pick otherwise.
-Texans or Steelers for the other wildcard was the hardest decision I had.
-I'm leaving the Cowboys out. The home Super Bowl won't be a story by Week 9
-I would have liked to pick CJ Spiller as Offensive Rookie of the Year but they have three above average RBs in Buffalo. It's too much of a carries share for me to go there.
-I know I have the Packers making the Super Bowl but not winning the division. That is on purpose.
Keith's Over/Under Picks Explained
This is by far the hardest year I can remember trying to pick Over/Unders. Usually there is one or two teams that jump off the page at you like Tampa at 6.5 last year.
Chicago Bears - Under 7.5
The Packers and Vikings are finishing 1-2 in the NFC North so that usually puts the 3rd place team at around 8-8. But Cutler is more than capable to lose a game or two on his own and there is something about Detroit that makes me think Chicago might not be guaranteed a sweep against them this year.
Cincinnati Bengals - Under 8.5
Again I'm going with the theory that the 3rd place team in this division will be right around 8-8. Having T.O. and Ochocinco on the same team as well as Cedric Benson has me leaning towards Cincy as a team with more downside than upside. Something's going to happen.
Indianapolis Colts - Over 11
Peyton Manning is always good for a 12-4 ro 13-3 season. Hopefully they have these 11 wins by Week 15
Kansas City Chiefs - Under 6.5
By far my least favorite selection. Other than San Diego, there are wins to be had among K.C., Oakland and Denver within the division. Any combination of those three teams finishing 2-4 in the AFC West wouldn't surprise me but I'm going with K.C. to be the one pulling up the rear.
New Orleans Saints - Over 10.5
I'm going against history here. I know no NFC South team has repeated as division champ but New Orleans is too good. Pending the Madden curse hitting Brees they should get to 12 wins. Plus they get the NFC West this year which I think it a pretty weak division overall.
Washington Redskins - Under 7.5
If I was going to predict the NFC East, I would pick Washington to finish in 4th. I don't think McNabb is THAT huge of an upgrade over Jason Campbell. I know that sounds crazy but if Jason Campbell was so bad, why are all of a sudden ESPN's experts consensus has the Raiders all of a sudden as the 2nd best team in the AFC West? I think McNabb is probably good for maybe one or two more wins than Campbell by actually having had play in some big games but I don't see this team getting back to .500.
Chicago Bears - Under 7.5
The Packers and Vikings are finishing 1-2 in the NFC North so that usually puts the 3rd place team at around 8-8. But Cutler is more than capable to lose a game or two on his own and there is something about Detroit that makes me think Chicago might not be guaranteed a sweep against them this year.
Cincinnati Bengals - Under 8.5
Again I'm going with the theory that the 3rd place team in this division will be right around 8-8. Having T.O. and Ochocinco on the same team as well as Cedric Benson has me leaning towards Cincy as a team with more downside than upside. Something's going to happen.
Indianapolis Colts - Over 11
Peyton Manning is always good for a 12-4 ro 13-3 season. Hopefully they have these 11 wins by Week 15
Kansas City Chiefs - Under 6.5
By far my least favorite selection. Other than San Diego, there are wins to be had among K.C., Oakland and Denver within the division. Any combination of those three teams finishing 2-4 in the AFC West wouldn't surprise me but I'm going with K.C. to be the one pulling up the rear.
New Orleans Saints - Over 10.5
I'm going against history here. I know no NFC South team has repeated as division champ but New Orleans is too good. Pending the Madden curse hitting Brees they should get to 12 wins. Plus they get the NFC West this year which I think it a pretty weak division overall.
Washington Redskins - Under 7.5
If I was going to predict the NFC East, I would pick Washington to finish in 4th. I don't think McNabb is THAT huge of an upgrade over Jason Campbell. I know that sounds crazy but if Jason Campbell was so bad, why are all of a sudden ESPN's experts consensus has the Raiders all of a sudden as the 2nd best team in the AFC West? I think McNabb is probably good for maybe one or two more wins than Campbell by actually having had play in some big games but I don't see this team getting back to .500.
2010 NFL Over/Under Game
Thursday, September 2, 2010
2010 NCAA Football Picks - Week 1
"I don't know if it'll make any change, but I figured it's time for me to start playing ball."
After a three-plus month layoff, I'm going to get this blog up and running again. Having a kid and buying a house really didn't leave a lot of time to blog. But I'm going to get this going with my 1st week college football picks. So if you like going .500 and losing your vig, then follow along with me.
Minnesota (-1.5) @ Middle Tennessee State
This line started at MTSU giving 4 and if Dwight Dasher was playing I probably would have taken them. You can take a Mark Ingram off an Alabama and they can just plug in another guy who was a blue chip recruit but taking the best player off a Sun Belt team is a different story (let alone the best player in the conference). Minnesota is probably the worst team in the Big 10 but taking away someone who accounted for almost 4000 total yards and 36 of his teams 47 TDs makes me wonder where MTSU's offense is going to come from.
Pittsburgh @ Utah (-3)
A lot of people are high on Pitt this year but this screams "trap game." The 15th ranked team in the country getting three points looks like a line that is trying to get the casual bettor to take it. Utah has a completely rebuilt defense but they are always good and should have a good enough offense to keep up with Pitt.
Maryland @ Navy (-6)
This is pretty much a pick that it based on last year for me. I don't think Maryland is any good and I think Navy's triple-option with Ricky Dobbs is a tough assignment for your first game of the year (i.e., Ohio State escaping 31-27 in last year's opener).
After a three-plus month layoff, I'm going to get this blog up and running again. Having a kid and buying a house really didn't leave a lot of time to blog. But I'm going to get this going with my 1st week college football picks. So if you like going .500 and losing your vig, then follow along with me.
Minnesota (-1.5) @ Middle Tennessee State
This line started at MTSU giving 4 and if Dwight Dasher was playing I probably would have taken them. You can take a Mark Ingram off an Alabama and they can just plug in another guy who was a blue chip recruit but taking the best player off a Sun Belt team is a different story (let alone the best player in the conference). Minnesota is probably the worst team in the Big 10 but taking away someone who accounted for almost 4000 total yards and 36 of his teams 47 TDs makes me wonder where MTSU's offense is going to come from.
Pittsburgh @ Utah (-3)
A lot of people are high on Pitt this year but this screams "trap game." The 15th ranked team in the country getting three points looks like a line that is trying to get the casual bettor to take it. Utah has a completely rebuilt defense but they are always good and should have a good enough offense to keep up with Pitt.
Maryland @ Navy (-6)
This is pretty much a pick that it based on last year for me. I don't think Maryland is any good and I think Navy's triple-option with Ricky Dobbs is a tough assignment for your first game of the year (i.e., Ohio State escaping 31-27 in last year's opener).
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