Keith's Over/Under Picks Explained

This is by far the hardest year I can remember trying to pick Over/Unders. Usually there is one or two teams that jump off the page at you like Tampa at 6.5 last year.

Chicago Bears - Under 7.5
The Packers and Vikings are finishing 1-2 in the NFC North so that usually puts the 3rd place team at around 8-8. But Cutler is more than capable to lose a game or two on his own and there is something about Detroit that makes me think Chicago might not be guaranteed a sweep against them this year.

Cincinnati Bengals - Under 8.5
Again I'm going with the theory that the 3rd place team in this division will be right around 8-8. Having T.O. and Ochocinco on the same team as well as Cedric Benson has me leaning towards Cincy as a team with more downside than upside. Something's going to happen.

Indianapolis Colts - Over 11
Peyton Manning is always good for a 12-4 ro 13-3 season. Hopefully they have these 11 wins by Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs - Under 6.5
By far my least favorite selection. Other than San Diego, there are wins to be had among K.C., Oakland and Denver within the division. Any combination of those three teams finishing 2-4 in the AFC West wouldn't surprise me but I'm going with K.C. to be the one pulling up the rear.

New Orleans Saints - Over 10.5
I'm going against history here. I know no NFC South team has repeated as division champ but New Orleans is too good. Pending the Madden curse hitting Brees they should get to 12 wins. Plus they get the NFC West this year which I think it a pretty weak division overall.

Washington Redskins - Under 7.5
If I was going to predict the NFC East, I would pick Washington to finish in 4th. I don't think McNabb is THAT huge of an upgrade over Jason Campbell. I know that sounds crazy but if Jason Campbell was so bad, why are all of a sudden ESPN's experts consensus has the Raiders all of a sudden as the 2nd best team in the AFC West? I think McNabb is probably good for maybe one or two more wins than Campbell by actually having had play in some big games but I don't see this team getting back to .500.