(16) Alabama State vs (16) UT-San Antonio
I was actually all over Alabama State in the SWAC tourney even though they were the 4 seed. They were some like 8-1 going in their last 9 going in to it and proceeded to roll. UT-San Antonio on the other hand had a lackluster end to the regular season and won close games in their tournament. But here is where I try to talk myself out of Alabama State:
The Southland and SWAC finished Conference RPI averages that put them 29 and 31 respectively. But the actual RPI number was a pretty big discrepancy. The difference in conference RPI was roughly the equivalent of the difference between the PAC-10 and MAAC. Check the math. Alabama State had an RPI of 263 and UT-San Antonio was 196.
Couldn't do it. I'm taking the Hornets and pumped I'm getting points
Alabama State +3
The song doesn't even have the word Hornets in it but still.
(11) VCU vs (11) USC
I've learned my leasson from last night. I took UAB because they probably shouldn't have been in the tournament and thought they'd be fired up. USC is bigger and more athletic and that's going to be good enough for me. One day too late.
USC -4
Showing posts with label NCAA Tournament. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAA Tournament. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
2011 NCAA Tournament Picks: First 4 Games (Thursday Edition)
First Four Games (Tuesday Edition):
(16) UNC-Asheville vs (16) Arkansas-Little Rock
UNC-Asheville -4
I'm not going to lie. I've seen each of these teams play once this year each. I'm going to base my picks lightly on the eye ball test and some numbers. The Big South and Sun Belt are right next to each other in Conference RPI so Asheville going 11-7 in the Big South is more impressive than Arkansas-Little Rock going 7-9 in the Sun Belt. As a matter of fact, before Little Rock ran off the 4 wins they were a sub .500 team on the season and which would be 8th in the conference if they weren't split into 2 divisions. Asheville was the beneficiary of some good luck in their conference tournament. Coastal Carolina did not have their best player throughout the tournament and you'd have to think that they would have won the tournament if Desmond Holloway was available. That being said, they did have to beat Coastal in the final on their home floor and did so handily. I'm going to go with UNC-Asheville giving the 4. They won their last 3 games going in to the tournament and winning their tournament games by an average of 13 points.
(12) Clemson vs. (12) UAB
UAB +4
I need less analysis for this game since I've seen these teams play a few times. I believe that Clemson is the better team but UAB has been dumped on by everyone for being included in the tournament. I'm going to bank on that as the motivation for them to win this game outright.
(16) UNC-Asheville vs (16) Arkansas-Little Rock
UNC-Asheville -4
I'm not going to lie. I've seen each of these teams play once this year each. I'm going to base my picks lightly on the eye ball test and some numbers. The Big South and Sun Belt are right next to each other in Conference RPI so Asheville going 11-7 in the Big South is more impressive than Arkansas-Little Rock going 7-9 in the Sun Belt. As a matter of fact, before Little Rock ran off the 4 wins they were a sub .500 team on the season and which would be 8th in the conference if they weren't split into 2 divisions. Asheville was the beneficiary of some good luck in their conference tournament. Coastal Carolina did not have their best player throughout the tournament and you'd have to think that they would have won the tournament if Desmond Holloway was available. That being said, they did have to beat Coastal in the final on their home floor and did so handily. I'm going to go with UNC-Asheville giving the 4. They won their last 3 games going in to the tournament and winning their tournament games by an average of 13 points.
(12) Clemson vs. (12) UAB
UAB +4
I need less analysis for this game since I've seen these teams play a few times. I believe that Clemson is the better team but UAB has been dumped on by everyone for being included in the tournament. I'm going to bank on that as the motivation for them to win this game outright.
After Selection Sunday
Took a few months off to regroup after football season but now it's time to come back for the best sporting event in the world.
Once again, Pete and I tried to predict the brackets before they were announced. This year we missed three teams again. We had Colorado, Alabama and Virginia Tech in the field instead of UAB, VCU and Clemson.
The team with the biggest gripe, in my opinion, is probably Alabama. I have no problem with Georgia being in but I don't see how you put Georgia in and not Alabama when Alabama was 12-4 in the (albeit, weaker half of the) SEC and beat Georgia twice in a week. Plus they do have a win against SEC tourney champ Kentucky.
I like VCU and actually like the fact they made the tournament. But in all honesty, this year, they do not deserve it. I'm a big fan of the Colonial but you can't finish 4th in that conference and be in line for a bid. Pete and I discarded VCU pretty early in the process. Granted they had two good wins against Old Dominion and George Mason in conference but their next highest RPI wins were non-tournament teams Drexel and Wichita State.
I know the committee doesn't look at conferences when comparing teams, but in this case I'm going to compare Clemson and Virginia Tech. The RPIs were close enough that it didn't matter. Clemson did beat Virginia Tech head to head but as showed by Georgia and Alabama, that doesn't matter that much either. Apparently the selection committee was big on playing people outside your conference. If you look at Clemson's non conference SOS it's 206 and Virginia Tech's is 181. Both gross but Virginia Tech should get the nod there. Clemson has zero top 50 wins. Virginia Tech has 2 (Duke and Penn State). I'm not sure about this one.
Pete and I didn't even discuss Colorado. We had them locked in. I think like everyone else we saw them beat Texas, beat Nebraska is a bubble eliminator and beat Kansas State for a 3rd time. Based on those wins it didn't seem necessary to look any further. That's where we were wrong. I do think Colorado passes the eyeball test of a tournament team but you'll have to do alot better than 9-9 in the Big 12 when your non-conference SOS is 331 (comfortably sandwiched between powerhouses South Dakokta State and North Carolina Central). I still probably would have put them in over UAB but I get it. At least UAB won the regular season championship of their conference. Their non-conference SOS was 167 which is still bad but dwarfs Colorado's. They had a better RPI (31 to 66) too. I get the line of thinking but I still would have put Colorado in. The job of the committee is to make the most competitive tournament they can. This feels like a message was being sent.
In order of the 6 teams talked about I would probably have them as Alabama, Virginia Tech, Colorado, UAB, Clemson and VCU if I was to redo my last 3 in, last 3 out.
Once again, Pete and I tried to predict the brackets before they were announced. This year we missed three teams again. We had Colorado, Alabama and Virginia Tech in the field instead of UAB, VCU and Clemson.
The team with the biggest gripe, in my opinion, is probably Alabama. I have no problem with Georgia being in but I don't see how you put Georgia in and not Alabama when Alabama was 12-4 in the (albeit, weaker half of the) SEC and beat Georgia twice in a week. Plus they do have a win against SEC tourney champ Kentucky.
I like VCU and actually like the fact they made the tournament. But in all honesty, this year, they do not deserve it. I'm a big fan of the Colonial but you can't finish 4th in that conference and be in line for a bid. Pete and I discarded VCU pretty early in the process. Granted they had two good wins against Old Dominion and George Mason in conference but their next highest RPI wins were non-tournament teams Drexel and Wichita State.
I know the committee doesn't look at conferences when comparing teams, but in this case I'm going to compare Clemson and Virginia Tech. The RPIs were close enough that it didn't matter. Clemson did beat Virginia Tech head to head but as showed by Georgia and Alabama, that doesn't matter that much either. Apparently the selection committee was big on playing people outside your conference. If you look at Clemson's non conference SOS it's 206 and Virginia Tech's is 181. Both gross but Virginia Tech should get the nod there. Clemson has zero top 50 wins. Virginia Tech has 2 (Duke and Penn State). I'm not sure about this one.
Pete and I didn't even discuss Colorado. We had them locked in. I think like everyone else we saw them beat Texas, beat Nebraska is a bubble eliminator and beat Kansas State for a 3rd time. Based on those wins it didn't seem necessary to look any further. That's where we were wrong. I do think Colorado passes the eyeball test of a tournament team but you'll have to do alot better than 9-9 in the Big 12 when your non-conference SOS is 331 (comfortably sandwiched between powerhouses South Dakokta State and North Carolina Central). I still probably would have put them in over UAB but I get it. At least UAB won the regular season championship of their conference. Their non-conference SOS was 167 which is still bad but dwarfs Colorado's. They had a better RPI (31 to 66) too. I get the line of thinking but I still would have put Colorado in. The job of the committee is to make the most competitive tournament they can. This feels like a message was being sent.
In order of the 6 teams talked about I would probably have them as Alabama, Virginia Tech, Colorado, UAB, Clemson and VCU if I was to redo my last 3 in, last 3 out.
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