I know there is a bad feeling surrounding the Mets with the whole Madoff thing and Johan Santana getting hurt, but I'm getting why everyone is putting the Mets in bottom tier of baseball. Sports Illustrated even went as far as to predict them finishing below Washington in the NL East. I'm sorry but tell me what Washington did to get out of the NL East basement. Jayson Werth? My friends and I would discuss how someone is going to make the mistake of giving Werth a ton of money to anchor an offense. Losing a guy like Adam Dunn hurts their lineup more than getting a Jayson Werth. But this isn't about Washington.
I've seen Vegas win totals range anywhere from 74 to 76. I'll happily take the over and be on my way. I'm a pessimistic fan at heart but last year was a disaster season for the Mets and they still won 79 games and I don't know how you look at this year's team and don't think they are going to be better. Santana being out is a blow but I don't think that alot of the "question marks" going in to the season are going to play out in favor of the Mets:
Jose Reyes: I'm a big believer in the contract year. Unfortunately I do not think Reyes will be a Met next year because they won't be able to afford him
Carlos Beltran: He definately not going to be a Met next year but he is also playing for one more big contract. I think Beltran is soft and could have played through some of his injuries and didn't. If this was any other year, do you really think he'd be pressing for Opening Day. I expect him to be in the lineup throughout the year.
Jason Bay: Granted, he just got hurt and we don't know the extent yet but I'm going under the assumption that it's going to be a 15 DL stint and he's back. Bay will never be a 30+ homerun guy at CitiField but he is a professional and in a way his season was very much like Beltran's first season. It's tough to remember now but he put up some solid seasons after he got used to New York. Bay is going to be fine.
Brad Emaus: Addition by subtraction. He has to be better than Luis Castillo.
Josh Thole: I don't consider him a question mark. He's decent enough putting the bat on the ball but he's not here to be an offensive catcher.
The Pitching Staff: It's lacking the number 1 with Santana out but Pelfrey is solid, Niese should be acclimated with a full season in the big leagues and not fade down the stretch again, R.A. Dickey...ok...I consider him a question mark. He pitched over his head last year. Even if his ERA is a run higher I'll take it this year. They are injury risks but Chris Young and Chris Capuano have been solid MLB starter in their career. Coming to CitiField is the perfect spot for them to resurrect their careers. I don't imagine they'll both stay healthy for the whole year but only one of them has to make it until Santana comes backs.
Bullpen: I'm not too worried about K-Rod. He was on his way to having a solid season before it got derailed. Bullpens are crapshoots year to year. It feels good to be rid of the Raul Valdez and Fernando Nieve types. The Mets were right not to re-sign Pedro Feliciano. Jerry Manuel worked him in to the ground the last few years and he's already starting the season on the DL with the Yankees.
I'm not saying the Mets are going to compete for a Wild Card or anything but all these magazines and websites are putting the Mets down with the dregs of Major League Baseball. The Madoff this has cast a black cloud over the franchise right now but it shouldn't have a direct effect on what happens between the lines. I'm pencilling them down for 82 wins, 1 game above the Marlins for 3rd in the NL East.
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