Keep it rolling
Last Week's picks
**Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3)**
To me a 3 point spread means that these teams are viewed as equal but the home team is giving the 3 points. Atlanta is good but they are not quite New Orleans.
Pittsburgh (-3) @ Tampa Bay
I kind of hope I'm wrong on this one because I'm like this Tampa Bay story so far. But this is the first time they are not playing a lousy team. Pittsburgh is proving that they can win without Big Ben and I think they keep proving it today
Oakland (+4.5) @ Arizona
I don't think Jason Campbell is a terrible QB but I think the Polish Cannon is going to give the Raiders a lift this week.
Last Week: 3-0
Overall: 5-0-1
Pick of the Week: 2-0
Friday, September 24, 2010
2010 NCAA Football Picks - Week 4
Ouch. Hung an 0-3 for the week. Not good. So obviously you're going to want to jump all over these:
Last Weeks Picks
Temple @ Penn State (-14)
It opened at 16.5. I'm assuming that bettors are going with recent memories of Penn State not putting up a fight against Alabama and Temple's handling of UConn. But Penn State handles Temple pretty easily historically and I expect the same this week
Stanford (-4.5) @ Notre Dame
The streak of 7 Stanford losses in South Bend comes to an end and I jump aboard the Stanford train. They are putting up tons of offense. Notre Dame has been competitive in both their losses but this could be the best team they've played so far.
Oregon (-11.5) @ Arizona State
Two games from the PAC10 this week. I'm on Oregon now too. I'm not worried about them going on the road having played at Tennessee on the road and hanging 48. This team is going to score and I don't see Arizona State being able to keep up.
Last Week: 0-3
Overall: 3-5-1
Last Weeks Picks
Temple @ Penn State (-14)
It opened at 16.5. I'm assuming that bettors are going with recent memories of Penn State not putting up a fight against Alabama and Temple's handling of UConn. But Penn State handles Temple pretty easily historically and I expect the same this week
Stanford (-4.5) @ Notre Dame
The streak of 7 Stanford losses in South Bend comes to an end and I jump aboard the Stanford train. They are putting up tons of offense. Notre Dame has been competitive in both their losses but this could be the best team they've played so far.
Oregon (-11.5) @ Arizona State
Two games from the PAC10 this week. I'm on Oregon now too. I'm not worried about them going on the road having played at Tennessee on the road and hanging 48. This team is going to score and I don't see Arizona State being able to keep up.
Last Week: 0-3
Overall: 3-5-1
Bobs NFL Picks: Week 3
I'm having a rough start to the year, so this is a pivotal week for me to turn things around.
Here's what I have for Sunday.
Packers (-3) @ Chicago: I think this matchup of 2-0 conference rivals looks better on paper than it will play out. I know its a different Bears team under Martz, but I still don't think they will be able to keep up with Green Bay.
Washington @ St. Louis (+3.5): The Rams are 0-2, but have only lost by a combined 6 points in their first 2 games. I expect this game to be close enough that the Rams have a chance to win so I'll gladly take the field goal plus.
Cleveland @ Baltimore (-10.5): Baltimore was on everyone's radar screen before this season, but they are 1-1 and approaching the tough part of their schedule. The Browns have been in every game, but I expect Baltimore to try and open this up early.
Last Week: 1-1-1
Season: 1-3-2
Here's what I have for Sunday.
Packers (-3) @ Chicago: I think this matchup of 2-0 conference rivals looks better on paper than it will play out. I know its a different Bears team under Martz, but I still don't think they will be able to keep up with Green Bay.
Washington @ St. Louis (+3.5): The Rams are 0-2, but have only lost by a combined 6 points in their first 2 games. I expect this game to be close enough that the Rams have a chance to win so I'll gladly take the field goal plus.
Cleveland @ Baltimore (-10.5): Baltimore was on everyone's radar screen before this season, but they are 1-1 and approaching the tough part of their schedule. The Browns have been in every game, but I expect Baltimore to try and open this up early.
Last Week: 1-1-1
Season: 1-3-2
The Ultimate Fighter: Season 12 Episode Recap
After a strong first episode, TUF resumed this week with the ever important team selection. Both coaches agreed that Michael Johnson was the strongest fighter of all 14, but GSP was smart enough to trick Koscheck into thinking he would pick his buddy Marc Stevens. Koscheck wins the coin flip and to GSP's delight, he decides to pick first to ensure he gets Stevens. Michael Johnson is grabbed next and Dana White agrees, that GSP played Koscheck perfectly.
The coaches finish selecting their teams, and they are listed below in order of selection.
GSP: Michael Johnson, Johnathen Brookins, Spencer Paige, Alex Caceres (Bruce Lee Roy), Karl Watson, Cody Mackenzie, and Dane Sayers
Koscheck: Marc Stevens, Sevak Magakian, Sako Chivitchian, Andrew Main, Nam Phan, Aaron Wilkinson, Jeff Lentz
Its hard to tell which team had the better draft, but the advantage should probably go to GSP because he picked 2nd and got who they agree is the best fighter. Its clear from the beginning that both coaches have very different coaching styles. GSP views himself as a training parter, while Koscheck seems to operate a little more like a drill seargent. GSP also decides to let one of his fighters, Bruce Lee Roy, select the first fight and he chooses to match up against Jeff Lentz. Both guys are young, but showed promise in their prelims. Lentz, who has been drinking heavily and smoking, seems a bit more one dimensional, but may be the better stand up fighter.
The fight starts off with neither fighter doing much, despite Bruce Lee Roy trying some flashy kicks. Lentz pins him against the cage and they stay clinched for the next 2+ minutes. Caceres attempts a standing guilottine but Lentz eventually gets out of it and gets on top of him. The fight doesnt get exciting until the last 10 seconds of the first round when they trade a few shots and Lentz finishes by judo tossing Caceres on his back and most likely wins the round.
The second round starts with Lentz pushing the pace and forcing another clinch against the cage. Lentz sweeps him, and ends up in side control. He drops a few elbows but allows Caceres to initiate a triangle that takes forever to sink in. After Lentz tries to punch his way out of it, he ends up tapping halfway through the 2nd round. Both fighters looked very average, but since its only the first fight, its hard to say how far Caceres can go.
The coaches finish selecting their teams, and they are listed below in order of selection.
GSP: Michael Johnson, Johnathen Brookins, Spencer Paige, Alex Caceres (Bruce Lee Roy), Karl Watson, Cody Mackenzie, and Dane Sayers
Koscheck: Marc Stevens, Sevak Magakian, Sako Chivitchian, Andrew Main, Nam Phan, Aaron Wilkinson, Jeff Lentz
Its hard to tell which team had the better draft, but the advantage should probably go to GSP because he picked 2nd and got who they agree is the best fighter. Its clear from the beginning that both coaches have very different coaching styles. GSP views himself as a training parter, while Koscheck seems to operate a little more like a drill seargent. GSP also decides to let one of his fighters, Bruce Lee Roy, select the first fight and he chooses to match up against Jeff Lentz. Both guys are young, but showed promise in their prelims. Lentz, who has been drinking heavily and smoking, seems a bit more one dimensional, but may be the better stand up fighter.
The fight starts off with neither fighter doing much, despite Bruce Lee Roy trying some flashy kicks. Lentz pins him against the cage and they stay clinched for the next 2+ minutes. Caceres attempts a standing guilottine but Lentz eventually gets out of it and gets on top of him. The fight doesnt get exciting until the last 10 seconds of the first round when they trade a few shots and Lentz finishes by judo tossing Caceres on his back and most likely wins the round.
The second round starts with Lentz pushing the pace and forcing another clinch against the cage. Lentz sweeps him, and ends up in side control. He drops a few elbows but allows Caceres to initiate a triangle that takes forever to sink in. After Lentz tries to punch his way out of it, he ends up tapping halfway through the 2nd round. Both fighters looked very average, but since its only the first fight, its hard to say how far Caceres can go.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Bobs NFL Picks: Week 2
I don't like the lines at all this week, not that it really matters after last weeks performance. But here are my picks.
**Kansas City (+2.5) @ Cleveland**: I'm sure Kansas City's win last week against the Chargers was at least in part, a fluke, but I'm not convinced that the Chiefs aren't an 8-8 team this year.
Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Detroit: I don't like to make a habit of picking road teams giving up almost a touchdown, but I think Stafford being out is a huge swing in this game. Shaun Hill is terrible and although the Eagles are also without their starting QB, Vick has a lot to prove and I think he will continue his redemption effort this weekend.
Houston @ Washington (+3): Argh, I regret this already. Houston is the better team and 3 points is not a lot, but in Washington I think this has all the makings of a let down game for Houston. Washington should keep it close, and the Houston defense showed that it was very vulnerable last weekend which could put Washington in a position to win late.
Season: 0-2-1
Pick of the week: 0-1
**Kansas City (+2.5) @ Cleveland**: I'm sure Kansas City's win last week against the Chargers was at least in part, a fluke, but I'm not convinced that the Chiefs aren't an 8-8 team this year.
Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Detroit: I don't like to make a habit of picking road teams giving up almost a touchdown, but I think Stafford being out is a huge swing in this game. Shaun Hill is terrible and although the Eagles are also without their starting QB, Vick has a lot to prove and I think he will continue his redemption effort this weekend.
Houston @ Washington (+3): Argh, I regret this already. Houston is the better team and 3 points is not a lot, but in Washington I think this has all the makings of a let down game for Houston. Washington should keep it close, and the Houston defense showed that it was very vulnerable last weekend which could put Washington in a position to win late.
Season: 0-2-1
Pick of the week: 0-1
The Ultimate Fighter: Season 12
Season 12 started this past Wednesday night with Josh Koscheck and Georges St. Pierre coaching a group of unproven lightweights. I'll admit, my expectations are not great, nor have they been for the last few seasons, but this first episode didn't disappoint.To look at the fighters, you wouldn't think that the next BJ Penn or Frankie Edgar is among them, but thats the thing with the UFC, you cannot judge a book by its cover. Many of the most dangerous guys are the ones that look like your next door neighbor and not Kimbo Slice. As has been the case with the last few seasons, the 28 fighters had to fight there way on the show for the 14 spots in the house. Highlights included a 14 second knockout by New York native Marc Stevens, a nice triangle submission by Andy Main, an impressive ground and pound by Jeff Lentz, a brutal beatdown by Michael Johnson and a wicked guillotine choke by Cody McKenzie.
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the emergence of Bruce Lee Roy who came out in a banana yellow jumpsuit and a shit eating grin on his face, but ultimately turned in a fine performance and won via choke against Paul Barrow. Lee Roy seems to be the character of this season and also one of Dana White's favorites. Hopefully he's more substance than talk, unlike past characters Jamie Yager and DaMarques Johnson.
This was a good kick start to what looks to be an entertaining season. The previews for the next few episodes include Koscheck going after an enormous black dude on GSP's staff that is twice his size, a guy getting laid out during a fight in the house and the normal tom foolery. Stay tuned.
2010 NFL Week 2 Picks
I'll take an 2-0-1 start
Last Week's Picks
**Seattle @ Denver (-3.5)**
I have to believe that last week's Seattle performance was an anomaly. Let's see how they do on the road.
Arizona @ Atlanta (-6.5)
Another half a point and probably would have stayed away. One week isn't going to scare me off and losing to a Big Ben-less Steelers is a red flag but it was on the road.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Carolina
I might take the Bucs straight up in this game. While I'm not panicking over the Falcons after Week1, I did see enough of Carolina to see that they are going to be lousy.
Last Week 2-0-1
Overall 2-0-1
Pick of the Week 1-0
Last Week's Picks
**Seattle @ Denver (-3.5)**
I have to believe that last week's Seattle performance was an anomaly. Let's see how they do on the road.
Arizona @ Atlanta (-6.5)
Another half a point and probably would have stayed away. One week isn't going to scare me off and losing to a Big Ben-less Steelers is a red flag but it was on the road.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Carolina
I might take the Bucs straight up in this game. While I'm not panicking over the Falcons after Week1, I did see enough of Carolina to see that they are going to be lousy.
Last Week 2-0-1
Overall 2-0-1
Pick of the Week 1-0
2010 NCAA Football Picks - Week 3
2-1 last week. I'm happy with the start. Kansas winning outright was nice to see. I like Turner Gill and want to see him succeed.
Last Week's Picks
California (-3) @ Nevada
I'm not overly confident in this game but I'm taking it anyway. Nevada never seems to beat BCS schools. Notre Dame and Missouri last year, Texas Tech and Missouri in 2008, Nebraska and Northwestern in 2007. With only three picks I've been trying to stay away from road teams but even though Nevada might have the best player on the field, I believe Cal has enough to keep the trend going for Nevada.
Louisville @ Oregon State (-20.5)
I do not think much of Louisville this year (which is unfortunate since my Big East College Football Fantasy team is peppered with Cardinals) so that coupled with it being Oregon State's home opener after having a bye last week has me thinking Oregon State will blow the doors off Louisville.
Texas @ Texas Tech (+3)
Texas Tech isn't intimidated by Texas anymore after beating them two years ago and playing them tough in Austin last year. Texas is good but their #6 ranking this year I feel is due to name recognition. This year Taylor Potts is a senior and he's played against Texas before and I think they'll win this game outright at home.
Last Week 2-1
Overall 3-2-1
Last Week's Picks
California (-3) @ Nevada
I'm not overly confident in this game but I'm taking it anyway. Nevada never seems to beat BCS schools. Notre Dame and Missouri last year, Texas Tech and Missouri in 2008, Nebraska and Northwestern in 2007. With only three picks I've been trying to stay away from road teams but even though Nevada might have the best player on the field, I believe Cal has enough to keep the trend going for Nevada.
Louisville @ Oregon State (-20.5)
I do not think much of Louisville this year (which is unfortunate since my Big East College Football Fantasy team is peppered with Cardinals) so that coupled with it being Oregon State's home opener after having a bye last week has me thinking Oregon State will blow the doors off Louisville.
Texas @ Texas Tech (+3)
Texas Tech isn't intimidated by Texas anymore after beating them two years ago and playing them tough in Austin last year. Texas is good but their #6 ranking this year I feel is due to name recognition. This year Taylor Potts is a senior and he's played against Texas before and I think they'll win this game outright at home.
Last Week 2-1
Overall 3-2-1
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Bobs NFL Picks - Week 1
I finished my NFL picks last season with a record of 30-18-1, including my unpopular pick for the Saints to cover in the Superbowl. But that was just for glory, and this year, their are much higher stakes than glory. Keith and I will be going head to head with our NFL picks this season (3 a week) and the loser will have to suffer the consequences. In addition to an NFL jersey of the winners choice, a compromising photo will be posted to the blog where it shall remain from the close of this NFL season to the start of the 2011 season.
I will also be selecting my bet of the week as indicated by ** before and after the selection. So with a lot to play for, here are my picks.
**Cleveland @ Tampa Bay (-3)**
Although Tampa Bay is not a playoff team, they are not one of the 6 worst teams in football this year where Cleveland still very much is. This game will not be televised in Tampa and I think that will provide some added motivation for the Bucs.
Colts (-1.5) @ Houston
I realize these teams play each other very close, especially early in the season, but I just don't think this is the year that the Texans beat the Colts out of the gate.
Dallas (-3) @ Washington
I don't love this bet, but I think Dallas is one of the best teams in football until they prove otherwise. The Redskins are improved, but McNabb hasn't played all preseason and I think the offense will sputter early causing them to fall behind. They do not have the offense to play catch up with the Cowboys.
Last Season: 30-18-1
This Season: 0-0-0
I will also be selecting my bet of the week as indicated by ** before and after the selection. So with a lot to play for, here are my picks.
**Cleveland @ Tampa Bay (-3)**
Although Tampa Bay is not a playoff team, they are not one of the 6 worst teams in football this year where Cleveland still very much is. This game will not be televised in Tampa and I think that will provide some added motivation for the Bucs.
Colts (-1.5) @ Houston
I realize these teams play each other very close, especially early in the season, but I just don't think this is the year that the Texans beat the Colts out of the gate.
Dallas (-3) @ Washington
I don't love this bet, but I think Dallas is one of the best teams in football until they prove otherwise. The Redskins are improved, but McNabb hasn't played all preseason and I think the offense will sputter early causing them to fall behind. They do not have the offense to play catch up with the Cowboys.
Last Season: 30-18-1
This Season: 0-0-0
Friday, September 10, 2010
2010 NFL Football Week 1 Picks
This season I'm going to keep track of my Bet of the Week. They will be indicated by ** before and after the game.
I took last night's game and pushed so here are my remaining two for the week:
**Cincinnati @ New England (-4.5)**
I just have a bad feeling about Cincinnati this year. With all the preseason talk about the Jets I think the Pats are going to come out and try to prove that they are still the class of the AFC East. Unless Tom Brady gets so shaken from the car accident that he starts a downward spiral of thrill seeking, cocaine and dating porn stars. Sorry. Bad Entourage reference. I can't believe I still watch it either.
Green Bay (-3) @ Philadelphia
I'll jump on board. Green Bay is going to be good this year. That isn't the question for me in this game. It's what kind of team are the Eagles going to be this year. It wouldn't surprise me if they won the division or it wouldn't surprise me if they finished 4th. I hate picking a road team in Week 1 but I think I've been propagandized in to Packers = Awesome.
Season 0-0-1
I took last night's game and pushed so here are my remaining two for the week:
**Cincinnati @ New England (-4.5)**
I just have a bad feeling about Cincinnati this year. With all the preseason talk about the Jets I think the Pats are going to come out and try to prove that they are still the class of the AFC East. Unless Tom Brady gets so shaken from the car accident that he starts a downward spiral of thrill seeking, cocaine and dating porn stars. Sorry. Bad Entourage reference. I can't believe I still watch it either.
Green Bay (-3) @ Philadelphia
I'll jump on board. Green Bay is going to be good this year. That isn't the question for me in this game. It's what kind of team are the Eagles going to be this year. It wouldn't surprise me if they won the division or it wouldn't surprise me if they finished 4th. I hate picking a road team in Week 1 but I think I've been propagandized in to Packers = Awesome.
Season 0-0-1
2010 NCAA Football Pics - Week 2
Pretty standard first week for me. 1-1-1. At least I'm consistent.
Last Weeks Picks
Georgia Tech @ Kansas (+13.5)
That was an embarrassing loss. The popular thought would be that Kansas couldn't beat North Dakota State at home so how are they going to hang with the 15th ranked team in the country. I'm going the other way. Turner Gill is a good coach.
Miami(FL) (+8.5) @ Ohio State
I kind of believe in Miami this year. I think this game is going to stay within a TD either way.
Penn State @ Alabama (-12)
Youngstown State wasn't a good enough test for me to believe Robert Boldin can hang with Alabama. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a 3 or 4 touchdown win for Bama.
Last Week 1-1-1
Season 1-1-1
Last Weeks Picks
Georgia Tech @ Kansas (+13.5)
That was an embarrassing loss. The popular thought would be that Kansas couldn't beat North Dakota State at home so how are they going to hang with the 15th ranked team in the country. I'm going the other way. Turner Gill is a good coach.
Miami(FL) (+8.5) @ Ohio State
I kind of believe in Miami this year. I think this game is going to stay within a TD either way.
Penn State @ Alabama (-12)
Youngstown State wasn't a good enough test for me to believe Robert Boldin can hang with Alabama. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a 3 or 4 touchdown win for Bama.
Last Week 1-1-1
Season 1-1-1
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Opening Night NFL Pick
I'm going to wait until tomorrow to make my other two picks but I do want one of my 3 picks for the week to be tonight's game. I thought the line would be a little higher which makes this pick a little too easy which does worry me.
Minnesota @ New Orleans (-5)
It just seems too easy. You think Favre is going to be ready because he always is but this time he's coming off surgery and he doesn't have his favorite receivers. Add in that the New Orleans Saints are coming back as conquering heroes and I think this is a 31-21 type game.
Minnesota @ New Orleans (-5)
It just seems too easy. You think Favre is going to be ready because he always is but this time he's coming off surgery and he doesn't have his favorite receivers. Add in that the New Orleans Saints are coming back as conquering heroes and I think this is a 31-21 type game.
Hard Knocks Postmortem
Ideally I would have liked to do a weekly recap of Hard Knocks but there was no guarantee that I would actually get to watch it as appointment television every Wednesday night. But now that's it over I'd like to give a postmortem.
I normally hate stuff like this when it comes to my team. If this was the first season of Hard Knocks I would have been watching looking through the spaces in my fingers as I covered my eyes expecting the worst. But I've watched a few seasons of Hard Knocks and NFL Films does such a good job that I was actually looking forward to Training Camp with the New York Jets.
Although Darelle Revis was the most important story of Jets camp, it was far and away my least favorite story on Hard Knocks. Living in New York, we were inundated with Revis hold out stories. I like Hard Knocks because you gets to see undrafted rookies trying to make the team or two guys fighting over a starting job.
The most jarring thing to see on the show was someone getting cut and it has a lot to do with the way Mike Tannenbaum does it. He greets you went you walk in and matter-of-factly tells you that they are going to let you go essentially as your ass is hitting the chair. Then another couple of sentences about how they appreciate they effort they gave and that's it. Dream crushed. Fascinating television.
I read and heard a lot that Rex Ryan was playing over the top for the cameras. I disagree. There were no HBO cameras around when he was telling everyone the Jets should be the favorites in the AFC Championship game or apologizing that the Jets season was over at 7-7. Like him or hate him, he doesn't have a filter between his brain and his mouth and I believe what you see is what you get.
I'm not above being propagandized by television. Last year I finished last season's Hard Knocks with the Cincinnati Bengals thinking 2009 was going to be Chris Henry's breakout year. I drafted him on my fantasy team and everything and now we all know what happened to him. Here is my list of ways I was propagandized by this season of Hard Knocks:
-LaDanian Tomlinson might not be done yet. He's not going to play at a Hall of Fame caliber level but I think he's going to help more than he's going to hurt.
-If I was rich and had 250 dollars laying around to get a random authentic Jets jersey, John Connor would be in my top 3 choices.
-For a guy that played 8 games and had 2 solo tackles last year I was devastated to learn that Ropati Pitoitua was going to miss the season. That guy looks huge and pretty quick for his 6-8 315 frame. I was actually comfortable with him being part of the defensive line rotation.
-I don't care if he was the 1st round draft pick this year. Admit your mistake and cut Joe McKnight. He never really lived up to the hype of being the best high school football player in the country and he looks light years away from being an NFL player. Chauncey Washington deserved to be on this team.
The Kellen Clemens thing was insane to be in the room for. First you see Kellen Clemens saying that he just wants an opportunity to have a legit shot at a competition for a starting job in the NFL the within the half hour he's faced with a decision to be released or take a pay cut to be 3RD STRING. He takes the pay cut to be the emergency quarterback. That strikes me as a guy that would rather just be employed in the NFL than compete for a job anymore. I used to feel bad for him because he really hasn't had a fair shake. The one year he got to start a few games, it was behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Maybe he was just blindsided by Tannenbaum's honesty and bluntness.
Mike Westhoff was probably the real star of Hard Knocks for me. I always knew he was a respected special teams coach he pulls no punches when talking about players good or bad and I found him to be a pleasure to watch.
I think the Jets will be competitive this year. I think they will have a very similar regular season as last year. The reason I don't think they'll be that much better is because Mark Sanchez still isn't that good yet. You hear people say he's grown enormously as far as being a leader and having it being his huddle. That's great an all but that doesn't really help his decision making once the ball is snapped. Hard Knocks made him a likable guy (which he was already) but it also highlighted his immaturity.
I would have liked to see more of Shonn Greene. I still don't know much about him as a person. I also would have liked to see the whole Tony Richardson being cut for the day situation. I still don't get that. I think the Jets pissed off some veterans by getting rid of Thomas Jones and Alan Faneca and resigning Tony Richardson so quick was less of a roster shuffle they had to do when Revis was signed as it was a backpedal based on the Jets players reaction.
All and all I loved every second of Hard Knocks. I'll watch it again next year but it'll never be the same as having your team as the star.
I normally hate stuff like this when it comes to my team. If this was the first season of Hard Knocks I would have been watching looking through the spaces in my fingers as I covered my eyes expecting the worst. But I've watched a few seasons of Hard Knocks and NFL Films does such a good job that I was actually looking forward to Training Camp with the New York Jets.
Although Darelle Revis was the most important story of Jets camp, it was far and away my least favorite story on Hard Knocks. Living in New York, we were inundated with Revis hold out stories. I like Hard Knocks because you gets to see undrafted rookies trying to make the team or two guys fighting over a starting job.
The most jarring thing to see on the show was someone getting cut and it has a lot to do with the way Mike Tannenbaum does it. He greets you went you walk in and matter-of-factly tells you that they are going to let you go essentially as your ass is hitting the chair. Then another couple of sentences about how they appreciate they effort they gave and that's it. Dream crushed. Fascinating television.
I read and heard a lot that Rex Ryan was playing over the top for the cameras. I disagree. There were no HBO cameras around when he was telling everyone the Jets should be the favorites in the AFC Championship game or apologizing that the Jets season was over at 7-7. Like him or hate him, he doesn't have a filter between his brain and his mouth and I believe what you see is what you get.
I'm not above being propagandized by television. Last year I finished last season's Hard Knocks with the Cincinnati Bengals thinking 2009 was going to be Chris Henry's breakout year. I drafted him on my fantasy team and everything and now we all know what happened to him. Here is my list of ways I was propagandized by this season of Hard Knocks:
-LaDanian Tomlinson might not be done yet. He's not going to play at a Hall of Fame caliber level but I think he's going to help more than he's going to hurt.
-If I was rich and had 250 dollars laying around to get a random authentic Jets jersey, John Connor would be in my top 3 choices.
-For a guy that played 8 games and had 2 solo tackles last year I was devastated to learn that Ropati Pitoitua was going to miss the season. That guy looks huge and pretty quick for his 6-8 315 frame. I was actually comfortable with him being part of the defensive line rotation.
-I don't care if he was the 1st round draft pick this year. Admit your mistake and cut Joe McKnight. He never really lived up to the hype of being the best high school football player in the country and he looks light years away from being an NFL player. Chauncey Washington deserved to be on this team.
The Kellen Clemens thing was insane to be in the room for. First you see Kellen Clemens saying that he just wants an opportunity to have a legit shot at a competition for a starting job in the NFL the within the half hour he's faced with a decision to be released or take a pay cut to be 3RD STRING. He takes the pay cut to be the emergency quarterback. That strikes me as a guy that would rather just be employed in the NFL than compete for a job anymore. I used to feel bad for him because he really hasn't had a fair shake. The one year he got to start a few games, it was behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Maybe he was just blindsided by Tannenbaum's honesty and bluntness.
Mike Westhoff was probably the real star of Hard Knocks for me. I always knew he was a respected special teams coach he pulls no punches when talking about players good or bad and I found him to be a pleasure to watch.
I think the Jets will be competitive this year. I think they will have a very similar regular season as last year. The reason I don't think they'll be that much better is because Mark Sanchez still isn't that good yet. You hear people say he's grown enormously as far as being a leader and having it being his huddle. That's great an all but that doesn't really help his decision making once the ball is snapped. Hard Knocks made him a likable guy (which he was already) but it also highlighted his immaturity.
I would have liked to see more of Shonn Greene. I still don't know much about him as a person. I also would have liked to see the whole Tony Richardson being cut for the day situation. I still don't get that. I think the Jets pissed off some veterans by getting rid of Thomas Jones and Alan Faneca and resigning Tony Richardson so quick was less of a roster shuffle they had to do when Revis was signed as it was a backpedal based on the Jets players reaction.
All and all I loved every second of Hard Knocks. I'll watch it again next year but it'll never be the same as having your team as the star.
Bobs Over/Under NFL Picks
I'm just getting around to looking at these lines now, and I really like 10 of them. I'll select my top 6 for the season to stay consistent with Keith & Pete.
Raiders - Under 6.5
I almost want to reload my account just so I can bet on this. I know they are a slightly improved team with a defense that keeps them in games, but its not like the line is at 4.5. For them to go over, they would have to win 7 games which they have not done since 2002. In fact, they haven't won 6 games since 2002. Tis a slam dunk.
49'ers - Under 9
I like the 49'ers this year, I really do. But I think worst case scenario with this bet is a push, because they are not winning 10 games. They play in a cupcake division, but even if they win all of their division games (which they wont), they still could finish at 9-7.
Giants - Over 8.5
I don't necessarily love the Giants this year, but I think the Eagles are down and the Skins haven't improved enough. They may go into their final game with 8 wins and need to beat Washington to get the over, but even then I wouldn't be worried.
Seahawks - Under 7
Im picking my second team to go under in this division and that may prove to be foolish, but the Seahawks have gone from mediocre to just plain bad. They are trotting out one of the worst wide receiver corps and running back duos in football to join their aging quarterback.
Colts - Over 11
They hit the rough part of their schedule in week 10 (New England, San Diego, Dallas) but by that point they may very well be 8-0. They have the schedule and talent to produce another 13 or 14 win season and keep in mind they would have hit this over every year since 2002.
Chargers - Under 10.5
I'm not sure I love this, because their schedule is actually pretty easy but their are just too many question marks with this chargers team. I know everyone loves Ryan Matthews, but how well he will perform at this level? And without Vincent Jackson taking some of the defensive focus, this team may sputter offensively.
Raiders - Under 6.5
I almost want to reload my account just so I can bet on this. I know they are a slightly improved team with a defense that keeps them in games, but its not like the line is at 4.5. For them to go over, they would have to win 7 games which they have not done since 2002. In fact, they haven't won 6 games since 2002. Tis a slam dunk.
49'ers - Under 9
I like the 49'ers this year, I really do. But I think worst case scenario with this bet is a push, because they are not winning 10 games. They play in a cupcake division, but even if they win all of their division games (which they wont), they still could finish at 9-7.
Giants - Over 8.5
I don't necessarily love the Giants this year, but I think the Eagles are down and the Skins haven't improved enough. They may go into their final game with 8 wins and need to beat Washington to get the over, but even then I wouldn't be worried.
Seahawks - Under 7
Im picking my second team to go under in this division and that may prove to be foolish, but the Seahawks have gone from mediocre to just plain bad. They are trotting out one of the worst wide receiver corps and running back duos in football to join their aging quarterback.
Colts - Over 11
They hit the rough part of their schedule in week 10 (New England, San Diego, Dallas) but by that point they may very well be 8-0. They have the schedule and talent to produce another 13 or 14 win season and keep in mind they would have hit this over every year since 2002.
Chargers - Under 10.5
I'm not sure I love this, because their schedule is actually pretty easy but their are just too many question marks with this chargers team. I know everyone loves Ryan Matthews, but how well he will perform at this level? And without Vincent Jackson taking some of the defensive focus, this team may sputter offensively.
2010 NFL Predictions
Because this went so well last year
AFC
East : Patriots
North : Ravens
South : Colts
West : Chargers
Wildcards: Jets, Texans
AFC Champions : Colts
NFC
East : Eagles
North : Vikings
South : Saints
West : 49ers
Wildcards : Giants, Packers
NFC Champions : Packers
Super Bowl Champions : Colts
NFL MVP : Matt Schaub
NFL Defensive Player of the Year : Patrick Willis
Offensive Rookie Of The Year : Mike Williams
Defensive Rookie Of The Year : Daryl Washington
Coach Of The Year : Gary Kubiak
Notes:
-Until someone unseats the Pats (with Tom Brady at QB) I can't pick otherwise.
-Texans or Steelers for the other wildcard was the hardest decision I had.
-I'm leaving the Cowboys out. The home Super Bowl won't be a story by Week 9
-I would have liked to pick CJ Spiller as Offensive Rookie of the Year but they have three above average RBs in Buffalo. It's too much of a carries share for me to go there.
-I know I have the Packers making the Super Bowl but not winning the division. That is on purpose.
AFC
East : Patriots
North : Ravens
South : Colts
West : Chargers
Wildcards: Jets, Texans
AFC Champions : Colts
NFC
East : Eagles
North : Vikings
South : Saints
West : 49ers
Wildcards : Giants, Packers
NFC Champions : Packers
Super Bowl Champions : Colts
NFL MVP : Matt Schaub
NFL Defensive Player of the Year : Patrick Willis
Offensive Rookie Of The Year : Mike Williams
Defensive Rookie Of The Year : Daryl Washington
Coach Of The Year : Gary Kubiak
Notes:
-Until someone unseats the Pats (with Tom Brady at QB) I can't pick otherwise.
-Texans or Steelers for the other wildcard was the hardest decision I had.
-I'm leaving the Cowboys out. The home Super Bowl won't be a story by Week 9
-I would have liked to pick CJ Spiller as Offensive Rookie of the Year but they have three above average RBs in Buffalo. It's too much of a carries share for me to go there.
-I know I have the Packers making the Super Bowl but not winning the division. That is on purpose.
Keith's Over/Under Picks Explained
This is by far the hardest year I can remember trying to pick Over/Unders. Usually there is one or two teams that jump off the page at you like Tampa at 6.5 last year.
Chicago Bears - Under 7.5
The Packers and Vikings are finishing 1-2 in the NFC North so that usually puts the 3rd place team at around 8-8. But Cutler is more than capable to lose a game or two on his own and there is something about Detroit that makes me think Chicago might not be guaranteed a sweep against them this year.
Cincinnati Bengals - Under 8.5
Again I'm going with the theory that the 3rd place team in this division will be right around 8-8. Having T.O. and Ochocinco on the same team as well as Cedric Benson has me leaning towards Cincy as a team with more downside than upside. Something's going to happen.
Indianapolis Colts - Over 11
Peyton Manning is always good for a 12-4 ro 13-3 season. Hopefully they have these 11 wins by Week 15
Kansas City Chiefs - Under 6.5
By far my least favorite selection. Other than San Diego, there are wins to be had among K.C., Oakland and Denver within the division. Any combination of those three teams finishing 2-4 in the AFC West wouldn't surprise me but I'm going with K.C. to be the one pulling up the rear.
New Orleans Saints - Over 10.5
I'm going against history here. I know no NFC South team has repeated as division champ but New Orleans is too good. Pending the Madden curse hitting Brees they should get to 12 wins. Plus they get the NFC West this year which I think it a pretty weak division overall.
Washington Redskins - Under 7.5
If I was going to predict the NFC East, I would pick Washington to finish in 4th. I don't think McNabb is THAT huge of an upgrade over Jason Campbell. I know that sounds crazy but if Jason Campbell was so bad, why are all of a sudden ESPN's experts consensus has the Raiders all of a sudden as the 2nd best team in the AFC West? I think McNabb is probably good for maybe one or two more wins than Campbell by actually having had play in some big games but I don't see this team getting back to .500.
Chicago Bears - Under 7.5
The Packers and Vikings are finishing 1-2 in the NFC North so that usually puts the 3rd place team at around 8-8. But Cutler is more than capable to lose a game or two on his own and there is something about Detroit that makes me think Chicago might not be guaranteed a sweep against them this year.
Cincinnati Bengals - Under 8.5
Again I'm going with the theory that the 3rd place team in this division will be right around 8-8. Having T.O. and Ochocinco on the same team as well as Cedric Benson has me leaning towards Cincy as a team with more downside than upside. Something's going to happen.
Indianapolis Colts - Over 11
Peyton Manning is always good for a 12-4 ro 13-3 season. Hopefully they have these 11 wins by Week 15
Kansas City Chiefs - Under 6.5
By far my least favorite selection. Other than San Diego, there are wins to be had among K.C., Oakland and Denver within the division. Any combination of those three teams finishing 2-4 in the AFC West wouldn't surprise me but I'm going with K.C. to be the one pulling up the rear.
New Orleans Saints - Over 10.5
I'm going against history here. I know no NFC South team has repeated as division champ but New Orleans is too good. Pending the Madden curse hitting Brees they should get to 12 wins. Plus they get the NFC West this year which I think it a pretty weak division overall.
Washington Redskins - Under 7.5
If I was going to predict the NFC East, I would pick Washington to finish in 4th. I don't think McNabb is THAT huge of an upgrade over Jason Campbell. I know that sounds crazy but if Jason Campbell was so bad, why are all of a sudden ESPN's experts consensus has the Raiders all of a sudden as the 2nd best team in the AFC West? I think McNabb is probably good for maybe one or two more wins than Campbell by actually having had play in some big games but I don't see this team getting back to .500.
2010 NFL Over/Under Game
Thursday, September 2, 2010
2010 NCAA Football Picks - Week 1
"I don't know if it'll make any change, but I figured it's time for me to start playing ball."
After a three-plus month layoff, I'm going to get this blog up and running again. Having a kid and buying a house really didn't leave a lot of time to blog. But I'm going to get this going with my 1st week college football picks. So if you like going .500 and losing your vig, then follow along with me.
Minnesota (-1.5) @ Middle Tennessee State
This line started at MTSU giving 4 and if Dwight Dasher was playing I probably would have taken them. You can take a Mark Ingram off an Alabama and they can just plug in another guy who was a blue chip recruit but taking the best player off a Sun Belt team is a different story (let alone the best player in the conference). Minnesota is probably the worst team in the Big 10 but taking away someone who accounted for almost 4000 total yards and 36 of his teams 47 TDs makes me wonder where MTSU's offense is going to come from.
Pittsburgh @ Utah (-3)
A lot of people are high on Pitt this year but this screams "trap game." The 15th ranked team in the country getting three points looks like a line that is trying to get the casual bettor to take it. Utah has a completely rebuilt defense but they are always good and should have a good enough offense to keep up with Pitt.
Maryland @ Navy (-6)
This is pretty much a pick that it based on last year for me. I don't think Maryland is any good and I think Navy's triple-option with Ricky Dobbs is a tough assignment for your first game of the year (i.e., Ohio State escaping 31-27 in last year's opener).
After a three-plus month layoff, I'm going to get this blog up and running again. Having a kid and buying a house really didn't leave a lot of time to blog. But I'm going to get this going with my 1st week college football picks. So if you like going .500 and losing your vig, then follow along with me.
Minnesota (-1.5) @ Middle Tennessee State
This line started at MTSU giving 4 and if Dwight Dasher was playing I probably would have taken them. You can take a Mark Ingram off an Alabama and they can just plug in another guy who was a blue chip recruit but taking the best player off a Sun Belt team is a different story (let alone the best player in the conference). Minnesota is probably the worst team in the Big 10 but taking away someone who accounted for almost 4000 total yards and 36 of his teams 47 TDs makes me wonder where MTSU's offense is going to come from.
Pittsburgh @ Utah (-3)
A lot of people are high on Pitt this year but this screams "trap game." The 15th ranked team in the country getting three points looks like a line that is trying to get the casual bettor to take it. Utah has a completely rebuilt defense but they are always good and should have a good enough offense to keep up with Pitt.
Maryland @ Navy (-6)
This is pretty much a pick that it based on last year for me. I don't think Maryland is any good and I think Navy's triple-option with Ricky Dobbs is a tough assignment for your first game of the year (i.e., Ohio State escaping 31-27 in last year's opener).
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