If the tournament goes to 96 teams...and I was an economist.

I read Freakonomics a few months ago and there was a chapter showing statistical evidence that there is some cheating going on in Sumo Wrestling. The statistical analysis that Mark Duggan and Steven D. Levitt did which the chapter is based on is HERE but the gist of it is that in sumo wrestling tournament, the wrestlers each fight 15 times. There is greater prestige in finishing with an above .500 record than a below .500 record. Finishing with an above .500 ranking guarantees you'll move up the the rankings. What it basically shows is that a wrestler with 8 wins or more is going against a wrestler with 7 wins are fighting each other in the 15th match of the tournament, there is little motivation for the sumo wrestler who already won his eight matches to win the match or he is a prime candidate for someone who would throw the match (whether he got bribed or if the guy he was fighting was a friend). All the fascinating stats are in that paper to back it up so you should check it out above (and the book for that matter.) Some how this got me thinking about the NCAA Tournament.

While nothing is official yet, I've read and heard on TV that if the NCAA Tournament is expanded to 96 teams, automatic bids would be awarded to the conference's regular season and conference tournament winners. One-bid conferences are always looking at ways to potentially get a second team in the dance as well as trying to set it up so at least their best team goes to the NCAA Tournament and therefore has the best chance of winning games in the tournament and raising the profile of their conference. That's why you'll see the conference tournament championships for these one-bid conferences happening at the higher seed's gym instead of a neutral site like a lot of the other conferences.

Think about this year. If you look at the Ohio Valley conference, Murray State ran through the conference going 17-1 and also won the Conference tournament. No big deal. The Ohio Valley didn't have another team worthy of a bid. But what happens if the Ohio Valley now has the opportunity to get two bids? If Murray State had already clinched an automatic bid, what does that do to their motivation in the tournament? What's even stopping Murray State from resting their players during the conference tournament? If Murray State lost to Morehead State in the conference final and they both got in, would Murray State been penalized that much seed wise? That's not even taking in to account the money aspect for the conference. Based on this article, by Murray State even getting to the tournament, the OVC gets $222,206 and with each win you get another $222,206 which is generally split amongst other teams in the conference. So even Tennessee-Martin who only won one game in conference this season still probably got over $44,000 dollars (since Murray State won their first round game) .

Murray State doesn't go to the tournament every year. They collected money last year when Morehead State made it and the year before that when Austin Peay went. Why wouldn't a coach of a team in Murray State's position be amicable to having a second team in the tournament if they are already in? Another team in the tournament would have banked Murray State over $22,000 more just by being there and losing in the first round. Where is the downside for them?

If I was an economist, I'd start preparing my data.