My favorite college basketball bet - as inspired by Kentucky @ South Carolina 1/26/10

Don't worry. I'm not about to start giving you college basketball picks that ultimately will end up .500 and losing your vig. What I am going to share is my favorite betting scenario over the last two years as inspired by last night's Kentucky @ South Carolina game.

Now this doesn't work with teams that start the year at #1 since they generally play cupcakes early in their schedules but teams playing their first game as the #1 ranked team in the country will either lose or not cover most of the time. Especially on the road. Take a look at last year:

1/5/09 - Pitt - not a great example because played home games against patsies St. John's and South Florida and won but first game on the road they lose to Louisville.
1/19/09 - Wake Forest - got #1 ranking and lost it two days later at home to Virginia Tech
1/26/09 - Duke - first game as #1 they lose at home to North Carolina. Not a bad loss but still.
2/2/09 - UConn - one of the times it didn't work out. They held #1 for three weeks.
2/23/09 - Pitt - got the #1 ranking back and the next day they lose on the road at Providence.
3/2/09 - UConn - got the #1 ranking back and they lose at Pittsburgh.

Even this year we've had Texas not cover in their first game after getting the #1 ranking from Kansas (against Iowa St) and of course last night Kentucky loses outright to South Carolina.

I don't know who'll be #1 when the new polls come out on February 1st but if it's one of these teams, keep these in mind:

Kansas - first game would be on the road against Colorado.
Villanova - first game would be home against Seton Hall (1st road game would be @ Georgetown)
Syracuse - first game would be home against Providence (1st road game would be @ Cincinnati)



image from http://bleacherreport.com

Raleigh's Conference Championship Picks

Last week I had a 3-1 bounce back weekend to even up my record for the playoffs.

On to this week's games:

New York (+8.5) @ Indianapolis
Same as last week, I think the Colts will win the game. I'm a die hard Jets fan but a realist (or pessimist however you look at it). But I do think it will be a game in the 4th quarter. The fact that this line moved up to 8.5 makes this alot easier to pick. Jets 20 Colts 27

Minnesota (+3.5) @ New Orleans
Still going strong with my feeling. Much to my dismay, BRETT FAVRE IS SUPPOSED TO PLAY IN THE SUPER BOWL. I'll be taking the Vikings straight up. Minnesota 38 New Orleans 28

Hopefully I'm wrong on both accounts and we'll be seeing a Jets/Saints Super Bowl.

Last Week: 3-1
Overall: 4-4

Raleigh's NFL Divisional Weekend Picks

Last weekend was lousy for me betting wise. The only game I hit I didn't even really believe in with the Jets. Round 2

Arizona @ New Orleans (-7)
Arizona can't stop anyone. New Orleans can stop you sometimes and at the very least, turn you over one or two times. Ideally we'd get a game like Green Bay/Arizona but we can't expect to be that lucky two weeks in a row. Arizona 28 New Orleans 42

Baltimore (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
As a Jets fan I'm upset New England lost last week. I'd always prefer to play Indy after not playing a meanful game for a month. Baltimore played Indy tight earlier in the season and I think they'll play them tough again. Baltimore 17 Indianapolis 20

Dallas @ Minnesota (-2.5)
Everyone is really high on Dallas. I still have to go with what I've been saying since the preseason, we're headed towards the most irritating Super Bowl Media Week in the history of Super Bowl Media Weeks. All Brett Favre all the time. Dallas 20 Minnesota 31

New York (+7) @ San Diego
I do not like this matchup for the Jets as far as winning the game. Still think they'll keep it close but I think this is the week a receiver has his best week against Revis. Vincent Jackson is the biggest receiver he'll face and Rivers is extremely accurate with the ball. But the fact that the Jets can run on San Diego and the Jets can stop the run, I think this is a close game. New York 13 San Diego 17


Playoffs: 1-3
Overall: 1-3

Bobs NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

I missed the boat on Wild Card weekend, but below are my picks for the 4 games this weekend. An incredibly tough weekend for bets, the lines are that tough. But I've done my homework and I think I can redeem myself from my 1-3 showing last week.

New Orleans -7 vs. Arizona: I have had a very difficult time figuring Arizona out this year. I have bet on them and watched them come out as flat as any team in the NFL. I have bet against them and watched Kurt Warner look like he was back with the greatest show on turf. However, New Orleans has been waiting for this game for over a month as they ended their season with 3 meaningless losses. Arizona has lost 2 of their last 3 road games and wont have the benefit of their home crowd today.

Indianapolis -6 vs. Baltimore: This is probably the hardest game to call because in Baltimore's 7 losses this year, only 2 of them were by more than 6 points. And their loss to Indy was only by 2 points, so clearly they can play against them. But for the same reason I picked New Orleans, I will take Indy. They haven't played a meaningful game in a while so they should come out firing.

Dallas +3 @ Minnesota: This is probably my favorite bet of the day. I have bet against the Cowboys 2 weeks in a row and watched them play like the hottest team in football. They have won their last 4 games convincingly and their defense has been stellar. If there is one thing that will kill the Vikings today, its pressure on Favre early. If they fall behind, I actually think this game could get ugly.

San Diego -7 vs. NY Jets: Lets face it, the 2 wins that got the Jets into the playoffs were against teams that didn't bring their A game and their win last week was against the coldest team in the playoffs. The Jets do have a tremendous defense but they did give up a combined 116 points in their losses to NO, MIA, and NE. They can be exposed.

Playoffs: 1-3
Regular Season: 29-18-1

College Bowl Picks - Final

Sorry for the delay on this but the chart has been moved off to the archives which you can visit by clicking the archive link on the left or here's the link:


http://losmavenssports.webs.com/2009collegebowlpicks.htm


Bob clipped me by one game going 17-17. I went 16-18 due to my pathetic 1-4 showing an the BCS Bowls

Referendum: Big Mac Comes Clean

Wow, have I done a complete 180 on this subject. Its clear to me now that I wrote the previous blog post a bit prematurely. I was basing my post on McGwires statement instead of waiting for his interview with Bob Costas on the MLB network. During that interview he repeatedly denied ever using steroids for performance enhancement, but instead claimed they were always for health purposes. He also appeared to deny a link between steroid/HGH use and increased performance, which absolutely no one in America believes. So, in essence he did what many others have done before him. He apologized, he admitted use, but never fully acknowledged the complete spectrum of the impact those steroids had.

I do believe that his admission was heartfelt and painful, but it was incomplete. In fact, he claims his record setting homerun seasons were a result of him "learning how to hit" and not because of steroids. Wow. I mean, are you serious? Bob Costas summed it perfectly by saying this, "I think he is extremely contrite about what he did...but its just strange that he cannot make, what seams to many of us, to be an obvious connection." "The sticking point is the unwillingness to acknowledge that steroids contributed to his stats during his years in the late 90's." And as I stated in my previous post, it was going to take a complete admission to be taken seriously. And finally from Costas, "I think he would've come pretty close to an A if he had been able to acknowledge that his performance had been boosted by steroids." Unfortunately Mark, that lack of acknowledgement does not get you an A. And therefore, you fail.

Big Mac Comes Clean

I'd like to start off by saying that I have become an enormous Mark McGwire detractor over the last decade. The hero from the Bash Brothers poster in my childhood bedroom holding a huge bat and leaning on a cop car has become a distant memory and has since replaced by an emotionless record breaking fraud. Its hard to say whether he or Barry Bonds is the poster boy for the steroid era, but you could argue either one and certainly find your reasons.

That being said, I am, for the first time in this era of baseball, satisfied with the admission given by McGwire today regarding his steroid use. So many times have athletes avoided the issue (see Clemens, Sosa), given half-truths (see A-Rod, Giambi), or outright lied about the issue under oath (see McGwire, Palmeiro) that it was refreshing to see a complete admission today. I know this has become a very stale subject, but today's statement from McGwire was significant in its comprehension and honesty.

He stated that "I used them on occasion throughout the 90's, including during the 1998 season. I wish I had never touched steroids. It was foolish and it was a mistake. I truly apologize. Looking back, I wish I had never played in the steroid era." I admire the fact that he admits the long tenure of his steroid use, specifically mentioning the 1998 record breaking season. It would have been just as easy to be vague about his steroid use and what effect, if any, they had on his career but he chose not to. His numbers obviously support that they had an enormous effect (his 3 biggest HR years were 1997,98,99) and that's what makes this so refreshing. The link between steroid use and performance was so obvious that only a complete admission would be taken seriously, which is why I never thought we would see it happen.

In this age of false records and impure idols, I respect the fact that Mark McGwire was willing to unveil the truth today. Whether or not it was because of his new position as hitting coach for the Cardinals is irrelevant to me. Other players have managed to dodge the truth for years and have their steroid use seemingly forgotten about. McGwire has cemented the fact that his legacy will be forever tarnished and his steroid use will never be forgotten about, but for him, and for baseball, that just might be a good thing.

For the MLB.com story, stats and video click here.

Bobs Best NFL Picks: Season Roundup

I'd like to apologize to all my faithful followers for not getting my NFL wildcard weekend picks up before gametime yesterday. If its any consolation, I liked Cincinatti, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Green Bay....which would have me at 1-2 now, with the Green Bay outcome still up in the air. So Im lucky if i finish .500 for this weekend.

Overall I enjoyed a solid season of picks, although there was a bit of a decline in the second half. I promise to promtly get the rest of my playoff picks in by this Friday.

Last Week: 1-2
Season: 29-18-1

Raleigh's NFL Playoff Predictions

If you want exactly half of your playoff bets to hit, you've come to the right place. Let me start with my playoff predictions first before I deal with this weeks lines.

AFC

Wildcard Weekend
New York over Cincinnati
New England over Baltimore

Divisional Weekend
Indianapolis over New York
San Diego over New England

Conference Championship Weekend
San Diego over Indianapolis

NFC

Wildcard Weekend
Dallas over Philadelphia
Green Bay over Arizona

Divisional Weekend
Green Bay over New Orleans
Minnesota over Dallas

Conference Championship Weekend
Minnesota over Dallas


SUPER BOWL
San Diego over Minnesota

I still don't believe that Minnesota is the best team in the NFC but we are headed to the most annoying Super Bowl coverage of all time. Plus Favre beating Green Bay thrice in a season would be annoying as well...so obviously it's going to happen. On to the lines.

New York (+2.5) @ Cincinnati
I honestly don't believe the Jets win but I need to believe it.

Philadelphia (+3.5) @ Dallas
I think this is a field goal game either way. I know Philly had a lot to play for but something was up last week. They didn't blitz. I don't see this being a repeat of last week.

Baltimore @ New England (-3.5)
The Welker injury is devastating but at the same time it gave the Pats the "nobody believes in us" anymore motivation that they use so well.

Green Bay (-1) @ Arizona
I know Warner didn't play most of the game last week but this has to happen so Favre can play the Pack in the playoffs.

NFL Regular Season Look Back

One of the fun things about having a blog is that you have an archive to go back and look at all the things you predicted before a season starts and you get be held accountable since it's all out there if people want to dig back and look. Since I don't imagine that people do want to look back, I'm going to do it for you. Overall it was an average season for me in the NFL:

Raleigh's Best Bets:
My 1-0-2 Week 17 got me to exactly .500 for the season.

Overall: 24-24-3
First Half: 11-13
Second Half: 13-11-3

Over/Under Game:
The original post can be found HERE

Again, a .500 result:

The short of it is that I correctly hit that Tampa (6.5) and Cleveland (6.5) would go under their number and that Baltimore (8.5) would go over theirs.

I was incorrect in thinking Dallas (9) and Houston (8.5) would go under their numbers and the Giants (9.5) would go over theirs.

2009 NFL Predictions:
The original post can be found HERE

Some of these are funny. I guess I must have been really high on James Davis. His 13 touches for 20 yards probably have to put him towards the top of the Offensive Rookie of the Year vote, right? What propaganda was I reading during the preseason? Bart Scott as Defensive Player of the year? Wrong Jet. Coach of the Year...Jim Mora Jr?

Picked a bad year to start the blog. If any of you went along with my picks or anything this year, I apologize for losing your vig.

Bobs Best NFL Picks Week 17

This is a tough week for picks, but I'll do my best to avoid the pitfalls of week 17 and come with some goodies.

Baltimore -10 @ Oakland: This has been a crazy year for the Ravens and they are probably wondering how they ended up having to play a meaningful game in week 17 after starting the season 3-0. I love good defensive teams that have something to play for so I expect them to punch the Raiders in the mouth today. Raven 27-Oakland 13

Philadelphia +3 @ Dallas: Ive watched both of these teams all year and I think that the Eagles are better. The division and a bye are on the line and I think the Eagles will win outright.

Green Bay +3 @ Arizona: After staring the year 4-4, the Packers have won 6 of their last 7 to prove that they are a contender in the NFC. The Cardinals only have one win over a playoff team all season. I like the Pack.

Last Week: 1-0
Season: 28-16-1

Raleigh's Best Bets NFL Week 17

Disappointing Week 16 for me. I can't rest my starters this week since I need this week to get back to .500 overall.

New England (+7) @ Houston
I think New England will do enough to win this game to ensure the 3 seed. A few years ago Indianapolis and New England were the 3 and 4 seeds respectively and played each other in the AFC Championship game. The fact that it was in Indianapolis was the reason New England didn't play in that Super Bowl. I hope that's enough motivation to at least squeak out a win.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Miami
Both teams have the chance to back in to the playoffs this year but I think that Pittsburgh is hungrier for it.

Washington @ San Diego (-3)
I know San Diego doesn't have much motivation but what's Washington's motivation? If they couldn't get up enough to play spoiler in their own division the last two weeks, how are they going to be up for a cross-country flight in a meaningless game?


Last Week: 0-2-1
Overall: 23-24-1
First Half: 11-13
Second Half: 12-11-1