TUF Heavyweights: Episode 3 Recap

Since this is probably going to be the biggest rated TUF we'd treat it a little special. In lieu of a regular recap. Me and Keith are going to chat it live...


CLICK HERE to read the Chat Transcript

What I learned from Week 3

Since I'm still feeling my way around how I want to format this weekly blog post, this week I'll break the teams into their 4 categories by records since this is the only time this will probably work.

3-0
NY Jets - Knowing the Jets history, you'd have to have assumed they would have lost to a desperate Tennessee team last week and then had the doors blown off them this week in New Orleans and been sitting at 2-2 after Week 4 with the bloom officially off the rose. I don't know what to think. If they get this game or even are in it at the end I'll start really believing this is really good team.
Baltimore - Offense appears to be caught up to their defense. That's pretty scary. Would be the class of the AFC if it wasn't for the guys on the next line.
Indianapolis - I know 3 games doesn't make a season but at this point they are probably the class of the AFC. Assuming Week 1 they beat the "good" Jacksonville team, they followed it up with two road wins.
Denver - The pretenders of the 3-0 teams. That might be harsh because their defense has been great and Kyle Orton for some reason just wins games. The win at Cincinnati all of a sudden doesn't look like meaningless.
NY Giants - Best bet here for 4-0 with Kansas City coming up. No matter who gets hurt they seem to be able to replace them easily.
Minnesota - Last weeks win is exactly why I picked them to win the NFC. The Brett Favre thing is going to be nauseating.
New Orleans - Like the Jets, this is the game is the one where New Orleans becomes real.

2-1
New England - So they lost to the Jets. They don't seem to have the swagger they did two years ago but unless you think the Jets are a 12 win team, you have to think it's their division to lose.
San Diego - I started to defend Denver before but I still feel San Diego will be in cruise control by week 10 or 11.
Cincinnati - I was wrong about this team. I assumed after the way they lost the 1st game that they'd be heading for a 4-12. Wins at Green Bay and against Pittsburgh had me rethinking them.
Philadelphia - Looks like they can score no matter who is the QB. 2nd best team in the division.
Dallas - They don't have enough receiving weapons. I think they'll be there with Philly for a wild card but I don't think they'll have enough early wins this year to overcome the December swoon.
Green Bay - I'll have something more to say about them after their game against Minny this week. Beating St. Louis does nothing for me.
Chicago - Good game/Bad game all year. I still feel that way.
Atlanta - Same as last week.

1-2
Buffalo - They'll beat the Tampas and Clevelands on their schedule but that's about it. After zero catches by T.O. we're going to see why it was such a bad signing.
Pittsburgh - Not too worried about them too much. Two losses were back to back road games. If they lose their next road game (Detroit) then it's time time re-evaluate things.
Jacksonville - Not overly impressed with the Houston win. Houston is inconsistant so it's possible they got them on a bad day. Taking the wait-and-see with them still.
Houston - Not there is not enough information to fully gauge a team yet, I think Houston and Chicago will have a similar season trajectory.
Oakland - I'll probably just copy and paste the same thing here every week. They're not any good.
Washington - Big time free-fall. Not even close to a contender for a playoff birth. Teams like Oakland and Washington should know when to say when on their QBs.
Detroit - Congratulations Detroit. It's a shame your fans couldn't see it on TV. Hopefully they sell out Week 8 so everyone can see the 2nd half of their wins this year.
Seattle - Completely regretting picking them to win the NFC West.
Arizona - Hit the reset button last week after they went cross country to beat Jacksonville. Same thing came up again...Super Bowl hangover.

0-3
Miami - The Chad injury hurts their chances for a few wins but after an 0-3 start, getting Henne some work this early is probably a blessing in disguise.
Cleveland - Eric Mangini really should have not getting a head coaching job right away. He would have been better served getting a coordinator job first. And from the looks of it he didn't learn anything from his time with the Jets. I wouldn't be surprised if he's one and done in Cleveland.
Tennessee - I still have a feeling they'll right the ship a little. 0-3 is tough to come back from and make the playoffs but they'll be competitive and/or win most of their games.
Kansas City - They just don't have the talent to be good.
Tampa Bay - Moving on from Byron Leftwich was the right move. Going with Johnson will improve the team by zero wins though. I'm not saying they won't win a game but they won't win many. Still potentially the worst team in football.
Carolina - It's a shame Carolina has no QB project to work in. They almost have to keep Jake Delhomme in there.
St. Louis - See Kansas City

Elicash's Week 3 Picks

Since Im under a time crunch here, this is going to be the no-frills edition of the NFL picks.
No witty comments, no facts about why Im doing what Im doing...Im just winging it.
SO here goes, for a Week 3 in the NFL...The league where they play for pay.

1) Houston (-4) vs. Jacksonville

Im doing my best to avoid picking Jacksonville the rest of the year.

2) Philly (-7.5) vs Kansas City

I dont care if McNabb is gone. I cant see KC scoring many points here.

3) Bills (+5) vs. New Orleans

Little bit of a letdown game for the Saints. No one wants to go to Buffalo...for many reasons.

Last Week: 2-1 Season To Date: 4-2

Raleigh's Best Bets - NFL Week 3

Have to do these quick because I'm running out the door

Redskins @ Lions (+6.5) - It's almost time for a win for Detroit
Jaguars @ Texans (-4) - Last weeks win impressed me enough and even though they lost to the Jets at home in Week 1, they have a great home record over the last two years
49ers @ Vikings (-7) - I don't think much of San Fran. Let's see how they do outside the awful NFC West

Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 4-2

Bobs NFL Picks Week 3

Not as crazy about the lines this week as I was last week, but heres what I got.

Chicago -2.5 @ Seattle: Solid defense vs Seneca Wallace. Nuff said.

Indy +2.5 @ Arizona: Indy has barely squeeked out their 2 W's but I do not believe in Arizona this year, at all. Probably a close game, but I think the Colts will be in a position to win at the end of the game so I'll take the points.

Eagles -7.5 vs. Chiefs: No McNabb but Kolb looked decent last week and KC is a mess. Could be a blowout, especially since the Eagles are coming off one themselves.

Last Week: 2-1
Season Total: 2-1

The Ultimate Fighter Heavyweights: Episode 2

Although this has to be the most anticipated season of TUF yet, after two episodes, the show is making me want to tap out with boredom. Im very tired of the 30 second Kimbo Slice promo scenes and redundant trash talking between Rashad and Rampage. I'll take a good fight, please.

With Rampage Jackson as the coach, strategy and matchups go out the window so despite trying to avoid going down 2 fights, Jackson opts once again to send one his inexperienced fighters into the octagon against Rashad’s first pick. Wes Shivers of team Rampage is an ex-nfl’er who might just be the tallest person ever to step inside the octagon. The guy looks like Thomas Haden Church on stilts and he'll face off against first overall pick, James McSweeney.

Round 1 starts and after the guys trade jabs and kicks, Shivers attacks and is able to take down McSweeney. He attempts a kimura, but its too sloppy and doesnt work. Eventually McSweeney is able to get up, land a few leg kicks and take a shot in the nuts. After the round resumes, McSweeney gets hit with a flurry of punches and then has a hard time countering because of his major reach disadvantage. Very little damage inflicted to either fighter in this round.

Round 2 starts and immediately you can see both fighters are exhausted. They trade leg kicks and eventually Shivers catches one and is able to take McSweeney down. He attempts another Kimura followed by a rear naked, but neither are succesful. McSweeney is somehow able to reverse position and mount Shivers, but then lets him get up. He passes on several different attempts to trounce (despite the screams of a frustrated Rashad Evans) and circles the octagon while Shivers struggles to stay standing. Eventually Shivers gets caught with a nasty leg kick and McSweeney takes him down and almost gets a choke in. Shivers can barely get up he is so tired and the bell rings. After watching this a 2nd time, I could actually make a case that Shivers won but the final minute was very very bad for him. Judges score it 19-19, 20-18, 20-18 and declare McSweeney the victor.

Despite not choosing either of the first two fights, Team Rashad remains in the driver seat having won both of them. And unlike Rampage, Rashad plays the next selection pretty smart. He taps former IFL champion and the owner of the largest man tits in the universe Roy Nelson to fight the cornerstone of the show, Kimbo Slice. It should be an interesting fight, regardless of outcome. One guy lacks experience and the other is the most experienced guy on the show. One guy is jacked, one guy is obese. Should be interesting.

Raleigh's Best Bets - NCAAFB Week 4

Off to my typical college start.

Buffalo (+3.5) @ Temple
Buffalo's is 1-1 on the road and both of those games (UTEP & Central Florida) were pretty long trips. Going to Philadelphia is going to seem like next door. Temple on the other hand did cover the 29.5 by 5 points against Penn State but they also lost an FCS (Villanova) team at home. Temple is like 1-12 against UB all time. Buffalo should win this game.

Wake Forest @ Boston College (-1.5)
If memory serves, these games are generally pretty close. The visiting team is 1-4 in the last 5 meetings with the 1 win coming last year when BC won with a TD drive in the last 2 minutes. That kind of history makes me comfortable enough taking the home team here.

I'm between two games here for my 3rd choice.........

Illinois @ Ohio State (-14)
Illinois is 0-2 against the spread this year...I'm kidding. I'm not using that as a relevant sample size. I'll probably regret this decision but I'm really basing on my first impression of them against Missouri.


Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 2-4

BTW - Rutgers (PK) @ Maryland was the other game.

What I learned from Week 2

Week 2 did nothing to change my mind after Week 1 with these teams:

Minnesota - They'll win the NFC North.
Detroit - Until proven otherwise, the worst team in football.
Kansas City - Losing to Oakland at home says it all.
New Orleans - New Orleans can score on anyone.
St. Louis - Worst offense in football.
Tampa Bay - I can't see how they are going to win more than 3 games.
Cleveland - See above.
New York Giants - Class of the NFC East.
Indianapolis - Had someone execute a gameplan perfectly against them and still won
Miami - They were a fluke last year. Perfectly executed game plan against Indy and still lost
Buffalo - They played a team who could challenge for the worst team in the league when all is said and done. I still think the Week 1 loss will haunt them.
Dallas - 2nd best team in the division. If they were a championship caliber team they would have opened that stadium in style.
Oakland - Winning on the road is rarely easy but it was only K.C.

Week 2 has me coming around on these teams:

Atlanta - They are for real and will be there in the NFC South all year.
New York Jets - The Jets defense looks awesome. Has these two games as losses in the beginning of the year
Houston - Going to Tennessee and winning is tough. Maybe the Jets defense is that good after seeing their offense this week.
San Francisco - Still don't think they're that good or anything but 2-0 in division games gives them a nice upperhand early.
Baltimore - winning in a cross country trip against San Diego is impressive.
Denver - Same as San Francisco above
Cincinnati - I did not think they would bounce back from Week 1. But I did have them at 1-1 after 2 games but just in the reverse order. Impressive win at Green Bay.
Arizona - I thought they were destined to be 0-2. They are normally terrible going to the East Coast. Reset their season.

Week 2 has me thinking these teams might not be as good as I thought:

Carolina - Should have never switched to the Tampa 2. It's not working.
New England - They'll still win the AFC East and probably by a few games but they aren't a 13-3 type of team.
Tennessee - Most surprising 0-2 team out there. I can see them losing in Pittsburgh on the road to open the season but Houston at home is a little scary.
San Diego - Lost at home to an East Coast team a week after playing Oakland to the wire. Not sure what to think.
Jacksonville - I don't think their season is over by any means but 0-2 puts them here.

Week 2 left me with more questions:

Green Bay - I'm giving them a pass. I still think they are a Wild Card team.
Washington - Played the Giants close in Week 1 but just squeaked out a win at home against a bottom feeder.
Chicago - I have a feeling Rex Grossman possessed the QB position in Chicago. We'll see this all year. 3 TDs or 3 picks every week.
Pittsburgh - I'm giving them a pass. They'll win their division.
Philadelphia - Won with their starter, lost with their backup. They'll get a pass as long as it's not a long term injury
Seattle - see above.

Parenting and Sports

This past weekend I went down to Orlando to watch my Alma mater (Buffalo) play at Central Florida. My wife and I had excellent seats. We were front row behind the Buffalo bench. For most of the game the UCF fans around me were shouting out player's numbers on UB trying to get their attention. If you're in college doing this, it's annoying, but at least you're heckling your peers. I'm not above it...I did it when I was in college.

So for most of the game I was listening to this go on. I was sitting front row so I didn't bother to see who it actually was behind me yelling until about the 3rd quarter when I got up to walk around. Directly behind me was a guy easily in his 40's with his young son next to him. The whole game he's blaming referees and also yelling at the players trying to get their attention. Even his little kid is yelling stuff at players and turning to his dad and proudly telling him that he thinks a player heard him. So a UB player goes up to the water cooler within an ear shot of us. He starts yelling at #93 about how much he sucks. #93 starts yelling back at him and then walks away. He actually turns to his son and gets a high five from him, congratulating himself on getting a player to yell back at him. Uncharacteristically, my wife turns to him and sarcastically congratulates him for getting under the skin of a 19 year old kid. The guy got flustered and said something about the Bills losing (because rooting for UB, automatically makes us Bills fan) and pretty much kept his mouth shut the rest of the game.

For the whole rest of the game I kept overhearing this guy's (quieter) interactions with his son and feeling bad the kid thinking about what an asshole he's going to be when he grows up.

Elicash's NFL Picks Week 2

I had a nice OK start to the season last week at 2-1, which I'd gladly take prorated over the course of the season. Hopefully I won't get raped like I did yesterday in college. In a rush as I'm heading out to watch the games so I'll make this so quick and snappy Jimmy Mattingly III would even be proud.

1) Jacksonville -3 vs. Arizona

I'm sure everyone has this game circled being as how bad Arizona was on the East Coast last year. The line is manageably low, which worries me. Seems like a trap...but I'm jumping into it anyway.

2) Atlanta -6 vs Carolina

I'll give the 6 points when going against the "Jake Delhomme turnover machine". How anyone in their right mind would take Carolina after watching their last 2 games dating back to the playoff debacle is beyond me. I love what Atlanta brings to the table, a smart solid QB, a great ground game and consistently good defense. All this sounds like a recipe for a cover.

3) San Francisco -1 vs Seattle

I think I'm being poisoned from last year on my opinion of Seattle. They just haven't been a team that has done much for me really since 06. I think SF is a team on the rise, I like Shaun Hill and they have an underrated defense. It's essentially a pickem at home for them, so I'll get behind them here.

Last Week 2-1 Season To Date 2-1

Elicash's College Picks Week 2 (For us)

So I slacked off again, even though I was reminded a number of times to get my college picks in, so here I am at 7:00 EST getting my picks in. To be fair I will have to select from the limited amount of games kicking off at 7:00 PM or later, but that shouldn't be a problem because I just bet 9 games. If I can't figure out which 3 I like best I probably shouldn't be gambling to begin with.

1) Cincinnati -1 @ Oregon St.

I'm probably getting roped in by Cincy's fantastic start to the season, but they are usually a pretty reliable team and they do have the better QB in Tony Pike, which is always something I look to in a college game. There is nothing more frustrating that betting on a team who's guy just keeps throwing the ball up for grabs, or even worse a guy who is so bad that his coach refuses to even let him do that much.

2) West Virginia +7 @ Auburn

I wouldn't want to take Auburn giving 7 points if they were playing Deer Park High School. Their offense is downright frightening. West Virginia is a little down this year I think, but I'll take the points and run.

3) BYU -8.5 vs. Florida St.

BYU finally gets to come home after a huge "neutral" site game in Dallas vs Oklahoma and a romp at Tulane. I don't trust Florida St travelling across country for this game and I still think they may be in a little bit of a letdown mode given their struggle with Jacksonville St last week. The line also seems to be begging you to take Florida St, a national team getting 8.5 against a non-Big 6 team.

Last Week 2-1 Season To Date 2-1

Bobs Best Bets Week 2

I missed last week but here are my picks for week 2. Put your paycheck on them....Im 50% confident they're locks.

Colts -3 @ Dolphins: This may wind up being my favorite bet of the year. Dolphins had nothing last week against a weaker team in the Falcons. Colts barely survived the Jags and will beat the dolphins by a touchdown+.

Vikings -10 @ Detroit: The Vikings may be the best team in the NFC and Detroit is certainly one of the worst. Granted, its in Detroit, but unfortunately that doesnt mean much. They were 0-8 there last year.

Titans -6.5 vs. Houston: Houston looked awful last week against a mediocre jets team and the Titans looked great against a stellar Pittsburgh team. The Titans were the 7th best defense in terms of yards allowed last year, and if they can lock Slaton up, it'll be a long day for Schaub and co.

Raleigh's Best Bets - NCAAFB Week 3/NFL Week 2

Have to do an abbreviated version of my picks this week as I'm about to head to the airport to go to Orlando.

NCAAFB Last Week/Overall: 1-2

Virginia Tech (-5) vs Nebraska
Cincinnati (-1) @ Oregon State - I'm very comfortable with Cincy's offense
Buffalo (+4.5) @ UCF - only because I'll be there

NFL Last Week/Overall 2-1

Jacksonville (-3) vs Arizona - Super Bowl hangover continues
Broncos (-3) vs Cleveland
NYG (+3) @ Dallas - I think the Giants will win outright

The Ultimate Fighter Heavyweights: The Bloodiest Premiere Ever

Last night was the much anticipated season premiere of Spike’s The Ultimate Fighter. This season features coaches Rashad Evans and Rampage Jackson as well as 16 heavyweights that include 4 former NFL players and legendary street brawler Kimbo Slice. Although its too early to tell if the season will live up to its billing as the best season of TUF yet, it did cap a night of great MMA.

The season started with the two enemy coaches Rashad Evans and Rampage Jackson talking in the TUF gym while waiting for the fighters to arrive. Listening to them banter had me thinking that their feud is a put on, a charade to amp up anticipation for the season and for their fight. They playfully taunt each other until the fighters walk in, each of them bigger than the next. And in typical Dana White dramatic fashion, only 15 of the seasons 16 fighters enter the room. Dana announces that the last fighter is someone that everyone knows and someone that he has talked a lot of shit about. Rampage guesses its Tank Abbott and I wonder if that went over any of the other 15 heavyweights heads. But alas, in walks Kimbo Slice.

A face only a mother could love.

After brief moments of the guys training its time for the coaches to make their picks. Rashad won the coin toss and elects to pick the first fight, thus Rampage gets the first pick. Rampage had made no secret that not only would he pick Kimbo first, but that he was convinced Kimbo already had what it took to compete and didnt need to alter his style much (Im wondering if Rampage missed his brief encounter with Seth Petruzelli on national TV). Following that pick, it pretty much goes like this. Rampage picks the biggest dude available, and Rashad picks who he believes to be the most talented fighter available. Obviously its too early to tell which strategy will work, but I will say this, my money is on Rashad's guys.

Rampage has the opportunity to pick the first two fights and he decides to put one of his inexperienced fighters, Abe Wagner, against an unassuming, yet experienced wrestler John Madsen. Rashad claims this is a huge mistake and 2 rounds later, we see that Rashad couldn't have been more correct.

The first round could be summed up like this. Bell rings. Madsen shoots. Abe crumbles without resistance. Madsen destroys his skull. Blood is everywhere. I call Keith and he thinks that when they come back from commercial, Abe will have bled out and they'll be zipping him up in a body bag. That doesnt seem far off.

The second round could be summed up like this. Exact same as the first round. The only difference in this round is that Rampage stops yelling "get up" and just walks away angrily. In Abe's defense, it was A.) a terrible fight selection for him and B.) some of the worst cornering I have ever heard from coaches. Granted there isnt a lot to tell a guy when he is pinned to the ground, but Im pretty sure "get up" is oversimplifying Abe's quandry a bit.

Its an obvious unanimous decision, and some judges even scored it 20-16, 20-17. Thats bad. On a closer look at Abe's head, you can actually see his brains in the cavernous opening in his skull. Its amazing they let him out for the 2nd round, and its even more amazing he survived it. Rampage is clearly furious with the performance and demands his guys don't touch gloves before any of the fights this season. I have a feeling that he'll need to use that and all of the other motivational tactics he can fathom to win any fights. This could get ugly and even more bloody.

Raleigh's Attempt at a UFC Fight Night Live Blog

3 hours of UFC programming tonight. I'm going to take a crack at live blogging tonight the first two.

Nate Quarry vs Tim Credeur

8:00pm - Two seconds after putting a beer down on the table it gets knocked over. Me and the cat are obviously fired up.

8:03pm - I miss Joe Rogan. 4 words I'd never thought I'd say.

8:10pm - "Me and Tim like to finish fights...blah blah blah...You don't become a legend going to decisions." - Nate Quarry. Normally hearing that kind of this gets me fired up for a fight but then I realized that Nate Quarry still thinks he had a chance to be a legend and it made me sad for him.

8:20pm - Round 1 easily went to Credeur. Landed a big right and tried to lock in a submission. About 1000 times more than Quarry did.

8:27pm - A lot better Round 2. Nice comeback by Quarry. It's always fun to see someone get rocked. The fight is obviously even.

8:30pm - Apparently Tim Credeur has "active hips." I hope someday someone says that about me.

8:33pm - I made fun of the fight earlier but that was highly entertaining. I'd be surprised if it's not Quarry 29-28.

8:36pm - You don't become a legend by going to a decision with and getting your face destroyed by Tim Credeur. A win is a win I guess.

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Carlos Condit vs Jake Ellenberger

8:45pm - Jake Ellenberger needs a nickname. I nominate "Flame Broiled."

8:54pm - Great first round. Condit took a beating. I give him a ton of credit for lasting to the 2nd round. I wouldn't be surprised if the round was scored 10-8 Ellenberger

9:02pm - Not as good a 2nd round but I give it to Condit.

9:08pm - The fight lost steam. Especially for Ellenberger who looked gassed. I could see it either going to Condit or a draw actually depending on how the first round was scored. Dana White is still probably pumped about how these first two fights went.

9:10pm - Split decision for Condit. I think it was because Bruce Buffer wanted to say a nickname.

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Gray Maynard vs Roger Huerta

9:22 pm - I'm surprised name-wise that this isn't the main event. Still no mention that Huerta is on his last fight of his contract and isn't going to re-sign because he wants to act.

9:28pm - I wonder how much "fight worn" Roger Huerta shorts are. Bob needs to have them.

9:35pm - Missed the Round 1 update due to needing a beer. Huerta is staying in there more than I thought. I just know what I would do if I was going to try and use my face to make money. After two rounds I'm thinking it's a round each.

9:41pm - Roger Huerta has to be double jointed. There is no way he didn't tap out.

9:44pm - Who had the card with Huerta winning the fight? The other two had all 3 rounds to Maynard. I thought it was 29-28 Maynard but to see two judges go 30-27 is weird.

9:45pm - Bye Roger Huerta

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Nate Diaz vs Melvin Guillard

9:43pm - I thought Guillard would dominate his season but he lost in his first fight after talking so much that I've never thought much about him. I think it's shocking he's in a main event.

9:52pm - What happens when Guillard gets older? Does he change his name from The Young Assassin to just the Assassin or the Old Assassin.

9:54pm - FYI - I think Diaz will win but I'm rooting for Guillard. He rocked Diaz right away.

9:58pm - After Round 1 I think Guillard got it. He's landed some big shots and he looks like the most irritating live action Whack A Mole. He can't be hit so far.

10:02pm - Wow! I don't think I would be inaccurate if I said that Guillard was on his way to winning his 2nd consecutive round. Now I only use this when talking about the ladies but Diaz has legs that go for days. He locked him in an nontraditional guillotine with leg assistance.

10:04pm - Great free event. That should make a grab a few new fans. Off to watch Season 10 TUF premiere.

Raleigh's UFC Fight Night Diaz vs Guillard Picks

Only going to pick the fights I'll get to watch on Spike tonight:

Nate Quarry over Tim Credeur - I've never been a fan of either guy I can't see a guy like Tim Credeur going 4-0 in the UFC

Jake Ellenberger over Carlos Condit - The only one I'm really going out on a limb with. I'm only going with Ellenberger because I doubt they would put him on a main card of a live event if he wasn't going to be decent.

Gray Maynard over Roger Huerta - Roger Huerta is probably going to be too busy protecting his face for his new acting career to go out a winner as a lame duck fighter.

Nate Diaz over Melvin Guillard - From what I've read, Nate Diaz might need this win to stay in the UFC. I'll take the desperate guy.

What I learned from Week 1

Tenn 10 @ Pitt 13 - Unfortunate loss for Tennessee. Run defense doesn't seem hurt by Haynesworth loss. Both teams are still on path to playoffs.

Mia 7 @ Atl 19 - So Miami was the fluke last year. That's what I thought.

KC 24 @ Balt 38 - 24 points to KC was misleading. With all the defections to the Jets, the Ravens D still held KC to less than 200 total yards. Granted it's KC...but still.

Phil 38 @ Car 10 - Thought the Delhomme playoff game was an anomoly last year. That was a statement game by Philly on the road.

Den 12 @ Cin 7 - Cincy won't bounce back from losing like that. I shouldn't have watched Hard Knocks this year. I got brainwashed into thinking the Bengals offense was going to come out firing.

Min 34 @ Cle 20 - With Adrian Peterson running, Brett Favre is resigned to Brad Johnson-like "game manager." I still think Cleveland is going to be awful.

NYJ 24 @ Hou 7 - I still think the Jets best case scenario is 9 wins but at the very least it looks like they'll be more fun to watch defensively. If Houston was supposed to make the leap this year they wouldn't have lost this game at home.

Jax 12 @ Indy 14 - I didnt' take much from this game. Outcome is not a surprise, the low score was.

Det 27 @ N.O. 45 - Jury is still out on if Gregg Williams fixed the defense. 27 points allowed to Detroit is misleading but they only allowed 238 yards...granted it is Detroit.

Dallas 34 @ T.B. 21 - The outcome was what I expected. Cadillac Williams leading the Bucs in carries wasn't. That should be a nice story for a few weeks until he rips up his knee again.

S.F. 20 @ Ari 16 - Honestly, I don't think I've even seen a single highlight from this game. Super Bowl hangover looks to be in complete effect. The only positive for Arizona is the Madden curse didn't get Fitzgerald...yet.

Wash 17 @ NYG 23 - I listen to a lot of NY Sports talk radio and Giants fans seem less than impressed with their performance in the win. It's rarely easy to get a division win. If I was a Giants fan I'd be impressed with 69% completion percentage to 7 different receivers.

STL 0 @ Sea 28 - Odd year so Seattle should be decent.

Chi 15 @ G.B. 21 - I know it's only Week 1 but Chicago isn't there with Green Bay and Minnesota. Jay Cutler...couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

Buf 24 @ N.E. 25 - See Cincy game. Buffalo won't bounce back from this. I say that the Pats looked average now but 17 weeks from now they'll still probably be 12-4 with a first round bye.

SD 24 @ Oak 20 - JaMarcus Russell has a cannon but it still doesn't look like he has any touch. It looks like anything under 20 yards is going to have to be thrown to Zach Miller because he's the only one who can handle it. I give the Chargers a pass in this game. On the road and nationally televised, if this was week 5 they would have won by 20.

Elicash's Bets for Week 1 (Combined)

I basically dropped the ball by not getting my college picks in before Saturday, so you're just going to have to take my word on it that I was 2-1. I liked Wake Forest (-3), who got lucky with a last second QB dive for a TD to avoid a push and get me the cover. I also was going to take Notre Dame at (-3) and I'm sure anyone reading this knows how that turned out. And my final pick was Ohio St (+7) and that was a very comfortable game to be watching knowing I was getting 7 points at home. So 2-1, trust me I have no reason to lie about it. So onto my NFL picks....

1) Atlanta (-4) vs. Miami

These were the 2 teams last year that took the NFL by surprise as they both finished about a combined 20 wins over their expected number. I think Atlanta was more the real deal that Miami. I like them at home with a number that is fairly low.

2) Carolina (+2.5) vs. Philadelphia

Everyone forgets that Carolina was the 2nd best team in the NFC last year and came an overtime loss to the Giants from being the #1 seed. However the disaster that was the playoff game against the Cards obscures this fact. So I'll take them getting points at home against Philly, who always has the ability to be a little Jekyll and Hyde.

3) Dallas (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay

I think TB may be the worst team in the league this year. I know T.O. is gone, but with the distractions he brings, that may be the worst thing in the world. Roy Williams has the ability to slide into the WR1 spot vacated by Owens. Dallas should be able to at the very least keep scoring and eventually put the cover away. I hate giving 6.5 on the road, it always seems to bite me, but I'll feel safe rolling the dice here.

Raleigh's Best Bets - NFL Week 1

Vikings (-4) @ Cleveland
This has more to do with how lousy I think Cleveland is going to be than how good I think Minnesota is.

Giants (-6.5) vs Washington
I think we're looking at a similar game to last year's opener. Maybe a 21-7 this time around. I just don't like Jason Campbell. Even worse, I don't think the Redskins like Jason Campbell.

Packers (-3.5) vs Bears
I generally view a 3 point line to mean that the teams are evenly matched and the 3 points is the home field advantage. I think the Packers are substantially better than the Bears and they're at home.

Raleigh's Best Bets - NCAAFB Week 2

Since I routinely finish below .500 betting on sports, I feel this is a very important feature on the blog.

South Carolina (+7) @ Georgia
South Carolina was stingy defensively against N.C. State last week and Georgia couldn't score on an Oklahoma State team that over the last couple of years couldn't stop anyone. Where I'll get burned is that I'm overrating South Carolina's defense a little because N.C. State's lousy offensive output can be blamed on the conservative play calling. I think Georgia will win but I feel we're looking at a 13-10 type game.

USC (-7) @ Ohio State
This line scares me a little since I know it is where it is right now to entice everyone to load up on USC after Ohio State's close call against Navy at home. I'm doing it anyway.

Notre Dame (-3) @ Michigan
Wow. Three road teams. That's why I'm so good at betting on sports. I just don't think Michigan is that good and I'm under the impression that Nevada is going to score some points this year and Notre Dame completely shut them down. That coupled with last years bowl game and last week's offensive performance, I think Notre Dame might be back.

The Over/Under Game

For the last couple of seasons elicash and I have each drafted a few teams each (no same picks but could be the same team if we are on opposite sides) and tried to predict if a team would go over or under their win total (courtesy of Sportsbook.com).

Raleigh's Picks

Tampa Bay - Under 6.5:
The over would require them to go at worst 7-9. In a division where they are by far the worst team I'm not sure I see that happening.

Baltimore - Over 8.5:
I was actually struggling to find teams to pick their over. They still have a good defense despite the Jets signing away 3 of their players and I think they are the 2nd best team the in the division and good enough to get in to the playoffs.

Dallas - Under 9:
This team screams 8-8. Tony Romo will be exposed without T.O. and Wade Phillips is an idiot. I believe the Giants and Eagles are both better in the division it's hard to predict what I think to be the 3rd best team in the NFC East finishing higher than 9 wins. Worst case scenario is I push the number.

Cleveland - Under 6.5:
Mangini is still unofficially announcing his starting QB until game time. Give me a break with this shit. He's not a good coach. He didn't learn anything from his time in New York. Just because he's from the Belichick coaching tree he deserves the same respect. I'll set the number at 2.5 years he's in Cleveland and take the under.

Houston - Under 8.5:
We all know Matt Schaub isn't playing in at least 8 games. He is already fighting to get on the field. Rex Grossman...Dan Orlovsky? No thanks. I know people are thinking this is their breakthrough year but I still think Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee are all still better.

New York Giants - Over 9.5:
I predicted them to win the NFC East. It's going to take at least 10 wins to do it. Again, I struggled to find teams to go over with and I hate going all one direction.

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Elicash23's Picks

Buffalo Bills - Under 7.5
I only see 7 winnable games on their schedule and that counts a split with the Jets and the Dolphins which isn't a given. TO's already bitching, they fired their offensive coordinator. Don't see them finishing .500

Chicago Bears - Over 8.5

I'm on board the Cutler bandwagon. I also think Minnesota and Green Bay are overrated and the Lions...well see below. They finally have some weapons to play with. I like them to win the division, therefore at least 9 wins will be had.

San Diego Chargers - Over 10
This division is terrible. Maybe the worst in football. I know anything can happen but they should go 6-0 in division which means even though 6 of their other 10 games are against playoff teams from a year ago, I feel confident in them getting at least 4 wins out of that.

San Francisco 49ers - Over 7
Someone has to win this division and I don't like the Cardinals on the Super Bowl loser theory. It seems to happen enough to make sense. The Rams may be the worst team in football. The Seahawks have an awful collection of skill players. Let's roll with Singletary and the Niners, I can get behind that.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Under 8
It started to get a little iffy here, but this team was a dead team walking last year, and I don't see any reason why this year should be anything different. They are probably the worst team in the division, and how many last place teams win 8 games??

Detroit Lions - Under 4.5
I am a little concerned we could have a repeat of the Falcons situation last year when the number was 4 for them and they proceeded to blow it out of the water at Raleigh's expense. But the defense is awful, they are starting a rookie QB (Matty Ice's dont come along every year) and they are still the Lions. Until proven otherwise I'll take a 3-13 season and move along.

Elicash23 NFL Predictions

Since I questioned Raleigh's NFC representative I guess it's only fitting I chime in with my own opinions on the upcoming NFL season.

AFC:
East - Patriots
North - Steelers
South - Titans
West - Chargers

Wildcards - Texans, Colts

NFC:
East - Giants
North - Bears
South - Falcons
West - 49ers (By default)

Wildcards - Eagles, Saints

Super Bowl - Steelers/Giants
Champion- Steelers

Offensive ROY - Donald Brown
Defensive ROY - Brian Orakpo
Defensive POY - DeMarcus Ware
NFL MVP - Philip Rivers
Coach of the Year - Mike Singletary

2009 NFL Predictions

The timing is perfect to start off this blog with some NFL Predictions

AFC:
East - Patriots
North - Steelers
South - Colts
West - Chargers

Wildcards - Ravens, Titans

NFC:
East - Giants
North - Vikings
South - Panthers
West - Seahawks

Wildcards - Eagles, Saints

Super Bowl - Patriots/Vikings

Offensive ROY - James Davis
Defensive ROY - Aaron Curry
Defensive POY - Bart Scott
NFL MVP - Tom Brady
Coach of the Year - Jim Mora Jr